In any case, the estimates of the Rosario Stock Exchange are categorical and indicate that the 2022/23 campaign “is the driest in 60 years” and that can clearly be seen in the fields of the core zone where not only soybeans and corn are being affected, but also livestock and other agricultural activities of great relevance to the social and productive fabric of the country.
The Rosario entity is forceful in its statements and details that “Argentina is suffering a very serious scenario: a 25% drop in production is already estimated compared to the 49 million tons that were expected with a normal climate scenario in December. 12 million tons of the oilseed are already considered lost and it is estimated with 37 million that it will be the third worst Argentine harvest of the last 15 years”.
Meanwhile, the short, medium and long-term scenarios are adverse for the country and it is feared that the next cut will leave the 2022/23 cycle with the worst production figure in this data series.
With this estimated volume (37 million tons) there will be almost 13% less harvest than a year ago, a harvest also affected by the lack of water. It is estimated a national yield of almost 24 quintals per hectare and an area that will not be harvested at 504,000 hectares. It is noted that area losses, especially in second-rate soybeans, can skyrocket and become massive if there is no imminent help from significant and widespread rains.
With regard to corn, planting delays and the severe lack of water suffered by the provinces of Santa Fe, Córdoba and Buenos Aires cut 600,000 hectares from the initially estimated planting area. In this way, of a total planting of 7.9 million hectares expected in December, it is now estimated 7.3 million hectares. With a normal scenario, about 50 million tons could be expected. The serious problems in sowing, the stopped growth that is observed in the late batches plus the enormous productive losses of the early corn make us foresee a scenario closer to 45 million tons.
Source: Ambito
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