It should be remembered that in August the slowdown in inflation was greater than expected and that no large price jumps are expected in the coming months, in a context of stability in the official exchange rate and low rates.
However, the market does not see that this decline is sustainable over time. So much so that REM participants they raised the inflation forecast for 2022 from 43.1% to 46%.
Regarding the exchange rate, the market estimates that the wholesale dollar will close this year at $ 105, below the $ 105.80 that had been projected in the REM for August.
It should be remembered that the Government maintained the value of $ 102.40 budgeted for the dollar towards the end of the year. This would imply an annual devaluation close to 24%, while if the private projections are met the exchange rate increase throughout the year would be 27%, much lower than an estimated inflation.
The average of those who best predicted this variable for the short term indicates that the nominal exchange rate for December 2021 would be $ 105.2, lower than the $ 105.6 predicted at the end of last month by those participants who made up the TOP- 10.
By 2022, private companies expect an acceleration in the exchange rate, which would lead to an annual devaluation of 48.4%, similar to the forecast price increases.
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