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After the record, they seek to add companies and open new markets

After the record, they seek to add companies and open new markets

Exports were US$6,119 million in December 2022, and in the accumulated year they reached a record of US$88,446 million. The highest data had been a decade ago, in 2012, when they had reached $79,982 million. By items, the main ones continue to be manufacturing of agricultural origin (u$s33,119 million)followed by primary products (u$s23,868 million) and in third place manufacturing of industrial origin (u$s23,061 million).

Asked why an export record was reached, Todesca explained: “There is a price effect, without a doubt, due to the rise in the price of commodities, but we also observe that manufactures of industrial origin grew by 15.8% in total, and measured in quantity by 2.6%, which which is important”. In addition, he added that although the ICA measures goods, services could also reach a record. At the moment there are data up to the third quarter, which show that more than US$10 billion in services were exported, of which $6 billion were knowledge-based, a year-over-year increase of 21%.

Although exports grew 13.5% between 2022 and 2021, in prices they climbed 16.2%, while in quantities they decreased 2.3%. When asked if this is a concern, Todesca replied: “More than worrying, it occupies. It is necessary to export more in quantities, but what must also be recovered is the number of exporting companies, and also the agenda of the Foreign Ministry going forward is to open new markets”.

cecilia todesca bocco 2022.jpg

What they observe in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is that the number of companies that sell abroad is stagnant. In 2011 it reached a peak of 12,800 companies, from 2012 it began to decrease until 2015, and from 2015 onwards it moves like a “saw” with some years increasing and others decreasing, but always around the 9,500. This year they plan to hold 130 trade fairs, 80 missions, 35 business rounds and 60 positioning actions. For SMEs, they have programs like “Exporter Challenge”where the Ministry of Foreign Affairs pays the fees of a foreign trade professional to implement an international business plan tailored to the company.

With a view to 2023, the Foreign Ministry maintains the same export expectations set forth in the budget, so US$105,000 millionbetween goods and services. “We did the number before the drought,” Todesca clarified. In any case, in the Government the projections have not yet changed, for that they will wait until the end of January. Because although a negative effect is expected due to the loss of part of the harvest, it could be offset by the price effect.

With respect to currency gapÁmbito asked how much better the export results could have been without this difference in the exchange rate: “You have to watch the whole movie. We come from a balance of payments crisis, with the largest loan ever given Once the IMF, and the pandemic hit us, you have to watch the full movie. The regulations we have in the exchange market have an impact on the gap, we are not proud of that regulation, but the question is how do we make the dollars we that we generate from exports are available to continue growing and buy inputs. If we deregulate suddenly it does not solve anything, but rather exacerbates it, we already live it”.

falling trade balance

Despite record exports, The trade surplus was cut in half: in all of 2022, it was US$6,923, when last year it had been US$14,751 million. The reason, according to Todesca, is that the imports were also record: it was imported by u$s81,523 million, 29% more than in 2021, and only in amounts 11% morein an economy that grew a little more than 5%.

Ámbito asked what motivated this record, if it was energy, overstocking, or illegal operations such as overbilling as a result of a 100% exchange rate gap. Todesca replied that one of the greatest effects was energy, where u$s 12,868 million in fuels were imported, 120.2% more than the previous year. In addition, he added that the economy returned to growth for the second consecutive year and there is an elasticity related to imports, adding what he called the “advancing imports”a maneuver by some companies in a context of uncertainty, inflation and slippage of the exchange rate.

Regarding the projections on the trade balance in 2023, Todesca explained that it is a data that is not calculated, because it depends on the variables of exports and imports. Although exports could fall due to the drought, the economist expects that there may be a drop in imports, partly because the economy is going to grow between 1-3%, and because the gas pipeline is expected to be completed, with its consequent savings currency.

Export opportunities

consulted about which sectors could increase their exports in 2023, He considered that we will have to see how the drought impacts the primaries, but he affirmed that he sees that they are “very dynamic” the automotive, chemical, pharmaceutical, machinery and electrical appliance sectors. “There is an opportunity in Latin America,” he said. In fact, she pointed to Brazil: “We believe that there are opportunities, especially in manufacturing of industrial origin for 2023, and for 2024, we aim to export gas to them.”

In the medium term, he considers that the great opportunities that could leaving behind an export matrix focused on agriculture they will go through mining and energy. “From now to 2030 exports will grow very strongly, but it is necessary to make productive chains, because if value, science and technology are not added, the problem is that there will not be the necessary employment to live well in Argentina.”

Todesca also referred to a debate that exists at the international level: how global value chains are going to be formed, in a context of crisis between China and the United States. Asked if Argentina will look for a “western” global chain, as requested by some businessmen, answered: “We want to locate investment here, projects of any nationality are welcome, as long as they are productive and generate work. There will be equal treatment for all capital”.

Source: Ambito

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