In fact, they estimate that inflation will accelerate compared to the December data. For example, according to the REM (which had forecast a 5.5% rise in the CPI in December), the variation for January will rise to 5.6%.
“For January we project inflation of 5.8%, an acceleration of 0.7 percentage points compared to December, mainly due to increases in regulated goods and services. Within this category, there have already been 4% increases in gasoline, 39% increases in groups, and 6.9% increases in prepaid payments were announced, while the cuts in electricity, gas and water subsidies for the utility sectors will continue. medium and high income. The core category will rise 5.6%, below the general level, in line with the rate of depreciation of the nominal exchange rate,” Tomas Álvarez Kuhnle, an economist at Analytica, told Ámbito.
“It seems quite evident that inflation in January will be above that of December. Basically, due to the increase in regulated items, transport, plus a slightly more important increase in food than there was in December. Plus the seasonal risesespecially those linked to tourism”, analyzed the economist Jorge Neyro, who detailed: “My forecast, in this scenario, would be above 5.5% with great certainty”.
Meanwhile, according to a survey carried out by the Libertad y Progreso Foundation, “In the first 15 days of the year, prices accelerated again and marked an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the data published by INDEC”.
“Consequently, the Inflation for the last moving month (last four weeks) stands at 5.9%. However, taking into account the dynamics of the last few weeks, January would close at 6.3% -the highest data since October- “, they pointed out from Libertad y Progreso. In December, the CPI measured by the firm registered a variation of 5.2%, in line with the official data released by INDEC.
“The dynamics of prices in the first half of January leads to a new acceleration that will hinder Massa’s objective of reaching April with inflation “with a three ahead”. The strong increases produced in some items will impact this month’s index, leaving behind the slight decrease in November and December, which does not seem to be entirely consistent with what the Government wants (and needs), “analyzed Emilio Prado, Liberty and Progress economist.
Surveys
For its part, the survey carried out by the Eco Go consultancy registered in the second week of January a variation of 1.2% in the price of food, compared to the previous week. “With this data and considering a weekly variation projection of 0.8% for the next two weeks of the month, inflation for food consumed at home in January would climb to 4.4% per month,” the firm pointed out.
Regarding the projection of the general level, from Eco Go they maintained that “Inflation data for December would be located at 5.4%. “Regulated products drove the general indicator for the month upwards, highlighting the increases in prepaid (6.5%), fuel (2%), and gas, electricity and water rates (14.1%, 19.6% and 20 1% respectively), domestic service (6.5%), bus and train fares in AMBA (between 20% and 70% depending on the service), among others”, they highlighted.
Meanwhile, according to the survey carried out by LCG, in the third week of January there was a 1.6% rise in food and beverages, which meant an acceleration of 0.76 pp compared to the previous week. Vegetables led the increases in the last week, climbing 6.9%; followed by dairy products and eggs (5.7%). Meats, meanwhile, showed a 0.3% price retraction.
Source: Ambito
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