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Saturday, January 28, 2023

Entrepreneurs reduce the probability of a recession to 56% in 2023

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In the previous NABE survey, released in October, 64% of respondents indicated that the US economy was either already in recession or more than equal likely to enter one in the next 12 months.

A total of 60 NABE members working for private sector companies or industry associations responded to the latest survey, conducted January 4-11.

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The survey also showed that respondents expect inflation to ease in their businesses and industries, with a forward-looking gauge of prices charged falling 10 percentage points from the last survey to the lowest reading since October 2020.

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at its January 31-February 1 policy meeting as it nears a stalemate in its rate hike now that the high inflation is on the decline.

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The US central bank raised rates last year at the fastest pace since the early 1980s in an attempt to tame inflation, which was at a 40-year high. Inflation, by the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure, remains nearly three times the central bank’s 2% target.

The latest economic data shows that inflation continues to decline and consumer and producer prices, profits and wages are growing at a slower rate, raising hopes that inflation can be brought under control without triggering a recession.

Source: Ambito

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