The progress of the soybean harvest in Brazil, which is on track to leave more than 150 million tons, also had a bearish influence. In this regard, the AgRural consultancy surveyed the progress of the collection on 1.8% of the suitable area, compared to 4.7% at the same time in 2022 and the average 2.8% of the last 5 years.
The good news is that the rains of the next few days could mitigate the productive losses in soybeans and thus achieve a harvest of between 37 and 41 million tons, in the best of cases. The bad news is that with a super harvest in Brazil and cautious demand from China, the value of the oilseed could gradually move away from the highs it has been setting at this point in the campaign.
In the case of corn, the situation is similar to that of soybeans and the harvest could also exceed 40 million tons if the moisture profile of the soils in the core zone improves. In short, all is not lost, but time is not playing in favor of crops that need a quick injection of water.
In this framework, the price of cereal, after the rainfall of the last few days, closed for the position that expires in March at u$s262.29, which represents 1.48% or u$s3.94 compared to Friday’s trading .
The other bearish fundamental that continues to affect US corn is the strong competition that Brazil is engaging in in the export market, after ending 2022 with record sales and removing the barriers that restricted the entry of Brazilian grain into China.
For their part, wheat prices also closed with falls in Chicago, Kansas and in the European market. “The main reason for the bearish trend, with the funds in another batch of contract liquidation, was Russia, due to the agility of its exports, whose fundamentals are a very weak currency, abundant inventories and little competition from the European Union and from the United States. Joined. The fact that dispatches from the three ports in Ukraine enabled for this purpose have returned to evolve without major setbacks after the slowdown evidenced between the end of 2022 and the second week of January, also added to the bearish trend”, detailed from Granar .
Thus the grain lost in Chicago for the March position almost US$8 per ton to close the session on Monday at US$264.55.
Source: Ambito
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