Strictly speaking, the producers who still have soybeans from last season are precisely those who have the greatest financial support and have already taken advantage of the so-called Soy Dollar to sell in the past two editions, which established a differential exchange rate to speed up the liquidation. currency.
In this context, there is already speculation in the sector about the possibility that the Government will use this well-known tool again, soon or after the harvest of the new soybean campaign. One of the fundamentals of the producer to retain as much grain as possible -after meeting his financial commitments- is that the oilseed is his refuge of value in a context in which the gap between the official dollar- to which they liquidate, less withholdings of the 33%- and the parallels exceed 100%. In addition, another fundamental issue that can slow down sales decisions is the presidential elections this year and the continuity or not of the current economic model.
As background, we can mention what happened in 2015 when Mauricio Macri won the elections for President and promised a drop in withholdings as soon as he took office. Even one of his campaign slogans was “Zero Withholdings.” From that victory and until December of the same year, the producers did not sell soybeans, thus waiting for the reduction of the tax that became effective on December 15 of that year.. The former president thus eliminated export taxes for wheat (which paid a tariff of 20%) and corn (23%) and reduced the rates on soybeans from 35% to 30%. He also promised to continue reducing that rate by 5% each year, to finally eliminate it in 2022. The truth is that long before this date, in September 2018 and after having taken out a loan of more than US$50,000 million with the IMF, Macri reintroduced the tax for cereals and canceled any reduction for the oilseed. .
Beyond this political background that marked the direction of the economy forward, agricultural producers are also being affected today by the drought in a context in which a downward trend in international prices is also expected. The good news is that this week a new round of rainfall is expected between Wednesday and Thursday in the core zone, so the soil moisture profile would continue to improve and thus would also slow down the production cut of the harvest and therefore of the foreign exchange income proposed for this 2023 that, despite everything, is projected at more than US$36,000 million.
Source: Ambito
