Meanwhile, the official dollar follows the dynamics set by the BCRA, which slides it around 5.5% per month, below what it had been doing at the end of last year. So, based on this dynamic, what elements do analysts see that will have an impact on the foreign exchange market this month?
demand for money
“There is a lot of excess weight going around in a context of declining dollar income,” says the director of CyT Asesores Económicos, Camilo Tiscornia. And he details that, once the soybean dollar 2 ended, which was implemented in December, the inflow of foreign currency fell, which is combined with a lower demand for pesos.
Juan Pablo Albornoz, economist at the consulting firm Invecq, mentions that “a factor to take into account is the seasonality of the demand for pesos.” He explains that December and early January are usually months in which people are left with more pesos than usual. That “rolls back, then, from February,” he describes.
Inflation
On the other hand, a key element to delineate the dynamics of the official dollar is inflation, which, according to all forecasts, in January would have been above the figure for December, when it was 5.1%. Some private forecasts calculate it around 6%, while in the ruling party they expect it to be around 5.5%. This suggests that the BCRA will maintain a rate of devaluation of the peso similar to that of last month in February, since for several months it has been leading it at a rate similar to that of the CPI.
Bookings
On the other hand, a key element for the foreign exchange market in all its variants are the BCRA reserves. “Payments to organizations are not going to put pressure, given that, in the month they will only have to pay -in principal and interest with the IMF and other international organizations- US$660 million,” says Analytica economist Tomás Álvarez Kuhnle. And he points out that this is a relatively low amount compared to the disbursements of close to US$4 billion that were made in January.
From the supply side, the BCRA has been facing a difficult February, with daily sales in the official market that already total US$147 million. This is a common situation for this time of year, but it is still worrisome given the reserve accumulation commitments that the Government has with the IMF.
Soybean 3 dollar?
Albornoz states that “if the agricultural liquidations continue as in January, when less than half of the historically usual levels were liquidated, the Government may have to resort to a new soybean dollar and warns that this “has a monetary impact and in the gap, as we saw in the previous programs” (soybean dollar 1 and 2), due to the monetary issue they require.
In the same sense, Pablo Ferrari, EPPA economist, does not rule out that agricultural exporters will probably tighten the rope in February, to promote the launch of a soybean dollar 3.
debt buyback
Another key factor, according to Albornoz, is what the Central will continue to do in terms of debt: if it is going to continue “buying hard dollar bonds to maintain parities and step on the CCL or if it is going to run.”
He explains that, at this time, financial dollars are somewhat contained by the presence of the Central, which has been strongly intervening in the bond market in recent weeks, although still below the levels seen at other times, such as October. and November 2021 and May, June and July of last year. “If the BCRA were to run, it would surely lead the financiers to higher values,” warns Albornoz in this regard.
Source: Ambito
