Then, among the most important commitments of the month are a LECER (X17F3) for $227,924 million, on February 17; and an LEDE (S28F3) on February 28 for $184,950 million. On the other hand, this month the Treasury would have to return $87,000 million to the Central Bank due to the expiration of Temporary Advances. It will be necessary to see if this year the Government continues with the same logic of 2022 of not asking the BCRA for monetary assistance directly. The first call for bids in February will be on the 15th and the second round will be the following day for the entities of the Market Makers program.
According to OPC estimates, in February maturities in pesos are equivalent to u$s2,883 millionTherefore, between March and the end of the year, the equivalent of another US$65,158 million would remain.
The debt in pesos front is the one that worries both operators and economists the most. As the maturity horizon cannot exceed three and a half months, uncertainty remains as to whether investors will agree to renew their confidence in the Treasury this year. For example, in April obligations already appear for the equivalent of US$10,504 million, in May, US$7,476 million, in June for US$10,297 million and in July it rises to US$14,439 million.. All this in a scenario of electoral battle in which the opposition continues to complain about the high amounts of debt that the administration of Alberto Fernández continues to take on.
For some analysts, like Christian Buteler, investors will have no other alternative, if necessary, than to refinance the bonds in pesos in their possessionbecause in a context in which there is strict exchange control, they would not have many options to place those funds in some other instrument that at least insures inflation as Treasury bills currently do.
“Looking ahead to the coming months, we estimate that the average $600 billion in monthly maturities between February and March is a manageable number for the Treasury. in case of maintaining the current strategy, as long as there are no episodes of stress,” he said. Ecolatina.
January left a cushion of about $220,000 million for the Government. Faced with maturities of almost $460,000 million, the Treasury placed debt in pesos for just under $680,000 million. But Ecolatina begins to warn about the situation since April. “Between the second and third quarters of the year, the monthly average of maturities is around $2 trillion. Faced with high maturities and given the impossibility of the BCRA to participate in the primary tenders, we hope that the Treasury will once again promote swap operations throughout the year,” the consultancy indicates in its latest report.
Meanwhile, there are economists who warn about the connections that exist between the financial front in pesos and the real economy. Former Vice Minister of Economy Emmanuel Alvarez Agis, said in a radio interview that the money from Treasury bills corresponds to companies’ working capital funds. “They try to prevent the money they have to pay salaries from melting away,” he warned. The economist, now a consultant, considered that both the national economic authorities and the opposition leaders should reach an agreement to set aside the debt in pesos and give guarantees that there will be no disruption as occurred in 2019, when they “reprofiled ” forced expiration dates.
Other analysts consider that the Government is going to have to deepen the strategy of voluntary exchange of bonds throughout the year. And for this it will be key that it begins to pass due dates after December 10, when there is supposed to be a new administration.
Source: Ambito
