The estimates show that February would end with a currency sell-off below January, which closed at US$928 million. Another key ingredient is that the second month of the year has fewer business days and at this time the affidavits of foreign sales of grains and by-products by agro-export companies are practically paralyzed, something similar to what happens with the sales of the oilseed from last season.
So far, according to the official record, about 8 million tons of the 2021/22 cycle remain to be sold but the truth is that this grain is not in the hands of small and medium-sized producers but of large planting groups or agricultural companies. At this time of the year, after the two editions of the Soybean Dollar launched by the Government during 2022, those who have the financial back to do so keep soybeans in the silobolsa. Meanwhile, the volatility shown by the exchange market, added to the cautious international prices, complete the combo that discourages the sale of grain.
Meanwhile, in the countryside they take it almost for granted that in the short term The Government will launch a new edition of the Soy Dollar not only to get hold of those 8 million tons in hard currency from last season, but also to speed up the sale of grain for the new cycle as much as possible. In economic matters, everything suggests that February will be a pivotal month that will clearly show the need for the local economy to have fresh currencies, not only to assist the exchange market, but also to meet the goals set by the IMF. .
Going forward, one of the biggest challenges facing the local economy is the final impact that the drought will have on the current corn and soybean season. Fundamentally, the oilseed alone contributes more than US$20,000 million a year in foreign currency and that is why a lower harvest will directly impact the availability of dollars this year.
For now, it is ruled out that there will be a considerable drop in the harvest of both crops and the most encouraging projections estimate that the total income of foreign exchange in 2023, adding the main agro-export complexes (wheat, corn and soybean), would be around US$36 billion, quite far from the previous year’s record when the field had brought in more than $40 billion. This is the context that the economic team takes into account to propose concrete measures to accelerate the liquidation of foreign currency in a year that began as complex.
Source: Ambito
