In November, when the first version of Fair Prices was launched only for the mass consumption sector, it was put as “carrot”, so that the companies agreed to sign, the most fluid access to the official dollar to be able to import. The truth is that although today the industry assures that “there are no stoppages of massive plants”, otherwise there may be “some production lines”, the promise of the Economy to access dollars to buy inputs for the entire first semester.
“If the import mechanism worked perfectly, that is, the SIRA comes out and in 90 days you have the merchandise, the companies would value it as a carrot, but it is not happening,” they told an important business chamber. In fact, orders for excel templates What the Ministry of Domestic and Foreign Trade does with the need for foreign currency by company for 2023 have not yet been fully approved.
The industrialists know that the underlying problem is that there are no dollars to maintain the level of activity, despite the fact that the commercial debt climbed to more than US$7 billion. Entrepreneurs fear that the drought will generate losses of more than $10 billionwhich are hardly compensated by the gas pipeline, so without a “rabbit from Massa’s galley” they find it difficult to speed up the import system.
He swap with China contributed yuan, which the industrial sector is already using to trade. However, industrialists are not very optimistic about the announcement with Brazil to finance imports between the Banco Nación of Argentina and the Bank of Brazil, due to the bureaucracy and regulations of both entities. Therefore, without a Repo, a swap with another country, net financing from the IMF or multilaterals, or assistance from Brazil, the sector does not expect greater flexibility for imports.
In any case, lower consumer demand, with lower international inflation for goods and freight prices, could partially “help” the lack of dollars. From one of the most important business chambers in the country they commented that the projection of industrial growth for 2023 does not reach 1%, due to the lower production that the lower demand will imply, and the amount of dollars. However, highlight that in recent years the industry grew more than 20%.
New Carrot: Credits
It is in this context that Economy came out with a new “carrot”. As far as he could find out Ambit From official sources, Economy is working on a credit package for companies that join Fair Prices. It will be a new line that will consist of short-term financing, of around one year, with a focus on working capital.
It will form part of the umbrella of the Crear line of the Ministry of Industry, headed by José Ignacio de Mendiguren, who have already allocated $500 billion, with a focus on productive investment, with terms of more than 5 years. “Companies are going to claim that they lose a bit of profit margin for being at Fair Prices, so with these credits they will be able to cover short-term financial flows with a subsidized rate,” official sources explained. Although the details are not yet defined, an attractive rate will be sought, which could be around 49%, some 30 points below the monetary policy rate.
Close to Mendiguren’s “Vasco” they observe the interest rate “higher than what developers like”, in a context where financing falls. The stock of real credit to the private sector contracted 16.1% in real year-on-year terms in December, according to the latest report from the Argentine Industrial Union (UIA).
The credits of the Ministry of Industry grant guarantees and rate subsidies for the financing carried out by the banks, especially the public ones. The bank that launched with the greatest force in recent years was Nación, which today leads Silvina Batakis. According to what they told this newspaper, since 2020 they have granted $3 billion in loans.
To assist with imports, they plan to allocate $500 million in 2023 for commercial credit of companies, more than double that of the previous year. In addition, they will seek to reach an agreement with the Brazilian bank, with a term of more than one year (366 days).
While they will also participate in another critical issue, which is the drought. Although Massa announced that Banco Nación was going to finance producers for $50 billion, with other instruments that will be implemented by the entity, aid to the countryside could amount to up to $90 billion, with rates lower than 50%. Of the more than 50 thousand producers in emergency zones, 34 thousand are clients of Banco Nación.
Source: Ambito