For their part, as they analyzed from the LCG firm, they expect for January “a variation above 5% per month, marking an increase of almost 98% per year”. “This evolution of the price level would be driven by an acceleration in Food and Beverages above 5% per month (almost 1 pp more than that observed in December), which would explain 1.5 pp of the increase in the month”, they detailed.
“Besides, the regulated categories increase their incidence, as a result of several increases authorized during the month: public rates (average 17% between gas and water), public transport (17% buses and 4% trains), prepaid (6.5%), fuels (4%) and cell phones (12%); In short, these increases would contribute an additional 2 pp over the total”, they added.
Meanwhile, from Analytica they pointed out Ambit: “For January we project inflation of 5.8%, an acceleration of 0.7 pp compared to December, mainly due to increases in regulated goods and services. Within this category, gasoline increases of 4%, of groups of 39%, and prepaid increases of 6.9% were announced, at the same time that the cuts in electricity, gas and water subsidies will continue for the sectors of medium and high income. The core category will rise 5.6%, below the general level, in line with the rate of depreciation of the nominal exchange rate”.
For his part, he GBA CPI measured by the consultant Orlando Ferreres, presented a monthly rise of 5.2% in January (In December, the firm’s survey had indicated a rise in retail prices of 6%). “Regarding the main items, ‘Housing’ and ‘Various goods’ led the rises for the month, registering monthly increases of 8.1% and 6.0% respectively; followed by ‘Health’ and ‘Transport and communications’, which presented a variation of 5.9% and 5.7% respectively”, they analyzed from the firm.
“In January, inflation increased compared to the previous month to 5.7%. For this first month of the year, the increase in regulated prices such as gasoline, transportation, electricity, gas, and water had an influence,” explained Damián Di Pace, director of the Focus Market consultancy, who added: “In turn, food had an increase of 4.7%. In the case of meat, it had a partial impact due to the increase in shelves last week, but more late price recovery is expected in February.”
some measurements, they were even located above 6%. This is the case of the survey carried out by the Libertad y Progreso Foundation, which in January registered a variation of 6.3% (in December, it had measured 5.2%). For its part, the survey of retail prices carried out by C&T for the GBA showed an increase of 6.4% in January, accelerating with respect to the 6.2% registered by the firm’s indicator in December. Meanwhile, the Ecolatina CPI for Greater Buenos Aires showed growth of 6.4%.
projections
“The beginning of the year would have started with an acceleration in prices. Henceforth, to a consolidated nominal value at high levels, the possible impact of the drought on food prices will be added, the strong corrections in cattle prices seen in recent weeks, which would be transferred to the price of beef to the final consumer, the inertia of salary dynamics and restrictions on imports”, analyzed from Ecolatina.
“On the other hand, the restraint of the crawling peg-the exchange rate averaged a rise of 5.4% in January, 1.3 pp below December-, together with the broad set of price agreements which will be renewed and expanded from February to June inclusive and if there are no shocks like those that occurred last year that allow the gap to be kept contained, inertia and inflation expectations could moderate at the margin. As a result, we expect nominality to remain high in the coming months, with 2023 showing inflation in the 90-100% area,” they added from the firm.
Precisely, in relation to the impact of the rise in meat, The survey of retail prices carried out by the Eco Go consultancy registered an increase of 2.8% in food compared to the previous week. “This implies an acceleration of the indicator, which advanced 2 pp in the margin. This is the highest weekly variation since last March”, they highlighted from the firm.
Source: Ambito
