Once the green tick is received, it will be time to analyze the 2023 financial year. And according to the information that was discussed in Buenos Aires, the real concern of the visitors is that this year the country also meets the committed goals of fiscal deficit, monetary issue and reserves in the Central Bank. And that, as a fourth concern, the inflation discussed and negotiated at 60% does not overflow. These are, a fiscal deficit of 1.9% of GDP, against 2.5% in 2022; a maximum monetary issue of 0.6% of GDP to supply the Treasury, which would imply a ceiling of $883,000 million for the entire year; and, the most difficult, an accumulation of final reserves of some US$9,800 million (since the beginning of the program) accounting for December 31, with which US$5,473 million would be needed. Regarding inflation, and although the IMF recognizes that it will be difficult to achieve the 60% that appears in the Budget (and that in the last quarter of 2022 it was endorsed by the organization as the base of operations for this year), the Technicians who passed through Buenos Aires and who will prepare the “paper” that Chalk will analyze, warned that this 60% cannot have significant deviations. Obviously up.
If everything goes as expected by the parties, the data that the Ministry of Economy already knows will be known at the next meeting of the board. The first year of validity of the Extended Facilities will be considered approved. With observations, but without particular waivers or pardons; given that the fiscal goals, reserves and monetary issue were exceeded. None of this is news for Argentina, since Sergio Massa himself took as his own the final negotiations for the end of the year in December of last year, in direct communications with the number two of the organization, Gita Gopinath. Massa knows that Gopinath knows the general situation in the country, for better and for worse.
Massa and the economist maintain a very good personal relationship. They know each other directly from the trip that the minister made last September and during the Autumn Joint Assembly with the World Bank Gopinath made it clear to him what Argentina can do and what not so that the agreement can have validity. And survive, at least until a new term begins after the elections.
Source: Ambito
