Harvest finished wheat, there has been a decrease in production of around 45% in relation to the previous campaign, obtaining the lowest yields since 2008/09. Closed planting window soy and where yields are being defined in 31% of the implanted area, 10 MTn (and 500 mHa) less are expected production than initially projected. He cornfor his part, production estimates have been reduced by 5.5 MTn compared to the initial estimates. Of all the coarse crops, sunflower is the one with the least negative impact.
Introducing the effects of drought on production, the economist Ramiro Costa highlighted the resulting economic impacts. Costa highlighted that signs of improvement are beginning to be seen in some world economic variables, the reopening of China, and the continuity of the grain agreement in the Black Sea that, even when stocks are adjusted and prices are at high levels, there is no They are at the highest recorded.
Ramiro Costa pointed out the impacts on the wheat chain projecting a drop in exports of the order of 55% in relation to last season, which implies 3,000 million dollars less, and a drop of 36% in contribution to the gross product. In corn, a reduction in exports is expected of 21%, that is, a fall of 2,160 million dollars less, with 3,600 million dollars less of contribution to the economy.
Given the importance of the soybean chain, the impacts on it are the ones that have the greatest weight. The lower production reduces the gross soybean product by 5,800 million dollars in relation to last season (-26%), a fall in exports of 4,500 million dollars and the collection would be affected by -2,300 million dollars.
Impact on exports
In sum, the impacts that the drought would have on the contribution of the sector in the current scenario they are one year-on-year drop of 12,245 million dollars in the gross agro-industrial product (-23%); a reduction in exports of almost 10 billion dollars (-23%) and, drop in collection of 19%, that is, 3,314 million dollars. However, he pointed out that the impact could be even greater if rainfall does not return to normal for the remainder of the season and the risk of early frosts becomes real, given the delays in planting progress.
Finally, Ramiro Costa He emphasized that these climate scenarios highlight the importance of having public policies that accompany the sector. If a rapid recovery of agro-industrial activity is sought, measures will be needed that aim at a reduction in tax pressure, with a gradual reduction in export duties, improvements in infrastructure, in financing, development and adoption of technology, and access of our products to international markets.
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Source: Ambito
