For the IMF, conditionalities and objectives can be discussed. But not the goals signed on March 25 of last year. “Under no circumstances” according to what the number two of the Fund, Gita Gopinath, made clear in person to Sergio Massa in the last meeting that the two held in Washington in October of last year.
However, and since these are two variables tied to the evolution of the GDP; if the growth of the product during 2023 is higher than the 2% agreed with the agency for this year; There will be no restrictions from the Fund for the Government to have the greatest collection from that extra growth, nor the greatest potential volume of issuance, provided that the 1.9% fiscal deficit and the 0.6% issuance are met. . In the first case, an extra $1 billion could be made available, while in the second case, there could be an additional $500 billion of issuance. For the Economy, this is absolutely feasible, since growth for the year is expected to exceed the agreed 2%; and that it reaches the final 3%.
It is recalled in the Palacio de Hacienda that in reality that 3% was the original percentage calculated at the time when the fundamental variables of the National Budget bill were drawn up; but that for reasons of fiscal, financial and monetary prudence (and so that it has greater political chances of being approved in Congress), the path of prudence was chosen and the projection of growth evolution was reduced by one percentage point.
Thus, the final 2% was an almost personal decision by Massa, at the time of closing the numbers and percentages of the project that was later sent to Congress. Finally, with the law already approved with some political backing from the opposition (something utopian to think about today), the final number was negotiated with the IMF for the first projections for 2023.
The Fund endorsed it and the calculations that are handled and negotiated between the parties today to discuss the 2023 financial year start from the 2% growth level, without the agency’s technicians discussing whether it must be decided if the percentage grows more than it already is. closed. As this newspaper reported, a new stage began yesterday in the review of last year’s data within the Extended Facilities agreement.
On Monday the process of collecting and analyzing the data from the agency’s technical officials ended, so that in the next two weeks it will be the turn of Gita Gopinath and the deputy director for the Western Hemisphere, Nigel Chalk; so that both important officials within the IMF finish reviewing whether the country complied (discarded) with what was agreed by 2022. The report will then be sent to the Board, where the highest level of power of the organization will decide (on the recommendation of Gopinath and Chalk), if Argentina can close 2022 in peace with the Fund. It will then be the time to discuss 2023.
Source: Ambito
