“In January 2023, the CI showed an advance of 5.5% in the year-on-year comparison. This, however, still occurs in a context of a low base of comparison in 2022 inherited from the pandemic, which explains part of the growth rate observed in the month,” the report states.
He himself maintains that “The level of household consumption in January 2023 failed to match the value of 2019, the point of comparison prior to the disruption caused by the coronavirus, standing 0.3% below it.”
The IC, according to Wilson, makes a tour similar to the Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity (EMAE) prepared by INDEC, although only in relation to commercial activity and services. The importance is that 70% of GDP is explained by the evolution of consumption, Therefore, understanding how this variable moves anticipates the behavior of the indicator prepared by the statistical agency whose latest data is as of November 2022.
One piece of information to take into account is that, while consumption continued to rise in January, the purchasing power of households fell 6% compared to December and 1.6% compared to the same period last year.which marks the strong impact of inflation on popular income.
The new indicator has different organizations and private chambers as data sources. Among them are Compañía Administradora del Mercado Mayorista Eléctrico (CAMMESA), car sales figures from the Car Dealers Association (ACARA), VAT collection data prepared by AFIP, consumption statistics from the City of Buenos Aires , in reports from the Secretary of Energy and the National Gas Regulatory Entity (ENARGAS).
“We are seeing a very clear stagnation of what consumption is,” Wilson pointed out.. According to the data of the entity, andn May 2022, a consumption peak of 33% increase was reachedor, then in August the rate was reduced to 12.9% and December ended with a level of improvement of 5%.
Compared to January 2021, there is an improvement in consumption of 21.28%, compared to the same month of 2020, only 0.11%, compared to 2019 there is a drop of 0.29% and in relation to 2018 the consumption of this year it is 7.1% lower.
Compared to last January, the clothing and footwear category showed an estimated drop of 1.4% in January year-on-year, with 20% below the pre-pandemic level. Instead, the transportation and vehicles chapter showed an estimated growth of 15.8%.
On the other hand, recreation and culture has an advance of around 10%. The section on housing, rentals and public services remained stable in the interannual comparison of the first month of the year
Source: Ambito
