One of the questions from the audience was directed to whether it will be possible in the short term to end the exchange control scheme, before which Melconian was quite harsh with some professionals enrolled in libertarian groups that propose the adoption of the dollar. “Dollarization is not coming, but not because of an ideological issue. I know all the guys who go around proclaiming it, professionals who go around with power points showing it and have even gone abroad to expose it. He doesn’t have a chance.”, held. In an ironic tone, he stated: none of you is here to play soccer, because you don’t have reserves, you have liabilities. We cannot enter into assuming that the Federal Reserve gives me a loan, that I make a trust, that the Central Bank moves. That does not exist”.
He also ruled out, on the other hand, that an eventual next opposition government is going to carry out a deregulation of the financial markets, in the style of what happened in 2015. “In Argentina, a complete deregulation of the financial markets cannot be considered. The next day you have the velociraptors, who come to the carry and leave leaving the hole for you”he explained. The free exchange rate “is a point of arrival”, insisted the director of IERAL. In relation to the dollar, you have to imagine an exchange market that respects what people decided, which is bi-monetary and that cannot continue with the regulations it has today”.
On the other hand, considered that the deadline to look at in Argentina is August, in the Simultaneous and Mandatory Open Primary elections (PASO) because depending on the result, different economic scenarios can be opened. “All the doubts they have, if it is not clearly defined in August, the situation will lengthen,” he said. The economist recalled two previous moments in which the PASO defined the result of the general elections. One in 2011 with Cristina Fernández and another with Alberto Fernández, in 2019. In both cases the electoral contest was defined early. Which triggered investor behavior. In both cases there was an outflow of capital.
After the noise generated by opposition economists about an “economic bomb” passed, Melconian considered that “there is no risk of spiraling” of inflation, although he warned that the credibility of the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, is declining. “Massa stabilized the instability, but from some point on, that success began to lose volume,” explained the economist.
Meanwhile, he estimated that “imminent” the Government is going to give a “selective devaluation” for soybean exporters. “The number is going to be $230 plus inflation for January, February and March,” said the economist.. The figure would be close to $270.
Source: Ambito
