Image: Gas Connect Austria
If the import capacities in Germany for liquefied natural gas (LNG) were utilized at 95 percent, the supply could even be kept at around the level of the past few years with a total of around 94 billion cubic meters. “For this, Germany would have to secure sufficient LNG supplies on the world market, which is a challenge for German importers on this scale,” according to the DIW. However, they have no long-term contracts for LNG deliveries and are dependent on short-term deliveries from the spot market. “World market prices could pick up again due to increased demand in China.”
Last year, 31 billion cubic meters of Russian natural gas exports arrived in Germany, which are now gone. With the LNG terminals in Belgium and the Netherlands as well as the floating plants in Germany, sufficient import capacities for LNG are available to be able to cover an increasing demand in Germany. “This can succeed in particular if there is a greater willingness to pay than in other regions of the world such as Asia,” according to the DIW.
Because of the improved gas supply, the institute is in favor of stopping the conversion of floating to fixed LNG terminals. “In view of the great uncertainties regarding the natural gas supply in spring 2022, it was rational that German energy policy advocated the option of floating liquid gas terminals,” says the study. However, this has meant that the gas industry has used this opportunity to build projects far beyond the foreseeable sensible amounts. “It is therefore high time to stop the conversion of floating to fixed terminals and to prevent LNG imports from stabilizing,” say the Berlin researchers.
After all, Germany will phase out the use of fossil natural gas in the medium term. Burning natural gas increases CO2 emissions. In addition, the extraction and transport of natural gas would result in other environmentally harmful emissions, especially methane. “In the medium term – about 20 years – methane is 87 times more harmful to the climate than carbon dioxide,” emphasized the DIW. “Therefore, the burning of natural gas must also be stopped on the way to climate neutrality.” In Germany, this is likely to be the case in more optimistic climate protection scenarios in the late 2030s.
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