For his part, Eugenio Marí, Chief Economist of the Libertad y Progreso Foundation, highlighted that the CPI measured by the firm registered a monthly rise of 5.5% until the third week of February. “However, the background dynamics are quite different from January. In the first month of the year, the increases in regulated prices, such as rates for public services and transportation, had an impact. In February, the regulated prices are again below the general CPI and moderate the rise, while the non-regulated ones accelerate ”, he pointed out.
“Core inflation shows an acceleration, standing at around 6% per month (more than half a point above the January record). Within the items, the most significant acceleration occurred in Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages, which has been increasing at a monthly rate of 7.9%. Although the double-digit adjustment in the price of meat is having an impact here, which represents 7% of the CPI, the reality is that the acceleration occurs practically transversally,” said Marí.
From the C&T consultancy they also highlighted the rise in food, with a marked incidence of the increase in meat. “On the contrary, the items linked to tourism lose some dynamism because February is less seasonally important. In this way, inflation in February would be around 5.5% per month”, They detailed from the firm.
Meanwhile, the CPI GBA measured by the consultancy Ecolatina registered growth of 6.1% between the first half of February and the same period in January, “realizing that the inflationary rebound of January would be consolidating.”
“Among the different items, The increase in Food and beverages (9.2%) stood out again. In line with expectations, the increase in this division was driven mainly by the jump in beef prices (22.2%), after the 40% increase in live cattle prices since the second half of January. In this way, bovine meat explained almost 1.3 pp of the increase in the general level”, they detailed from the firm.
When analyzing the evolution of the foodin their usual survey of retail prices, from the Eco Go consultancy reported that in the third week of the month “recorded a variation of 1.8% compared to the previous week”. “With this data and considering a weekly variation projection of 1% for the last week of the month, inflation for food consumed at home in February would climb to 7.8% per month”, they detailed.
projections
Beyond what may happen in February, “going forward, different factors will continue to put pressure on an inflationary inertia that is difficult to disarm in the short term,” They stressed from Ecolatina. “Among them, the impact of the drought about the price of some foods; the transfer to the consumer of the adjustment in the prices of bovine cattle; the dynamics of salary adjustments in an election year; pending increases in utility rates; a currency crawling peg more aligned with inflation; the restrictions on imports and tensions over the gap and expectations of devaluation in the midst of the electoral transition”, they detailed.
“As a counterweight, the broad set of price agreements implemented by the Government with different sectors producing goods and services under the umbrella of Fair Prices -renewed and extended this month until June inclusive-, together with the absence of shocks such as those that occurred last year that allow the exchange rate gap to be contained, could help moderate inertia and inflation expectationsalthough not substantially ”, they stressed from Ecolatina.
Source: Ambito
