Regarding the factors that explain the recent exchange rate stability, the economist Frederick Glustein stressed that “It has a correlation with the general falls on Wall Street as a result of a higher-than-expected CPI, 6.4% per year, which produced a volatility that was transferred to the local market, with falling sovereign bonds in dollars and an expectant market more for local inflation than for the dollar, the product of an acceleration typical of the dynamics resulting from the drought and the sales of the BCRA with a shortage of foreign currency that will hardly recover by the beginning of the month of March”. “Another factor is a control of the MEP market by the authorities who observe it too much so that it does not trigger while the CCL situation is slightly delayed by the global context, which, ultimately, are those that are monitored in contexts of instability local and global”he added.
Likewise, the financial analyst Salvador Vitelli stressed that the calm “responds to the intervention made by the BCRA in bonds, turning mainly to the GD30, but intervening in the entire curve; Although the parities have been destroyed since the announcement, by intervening in the bonds the price falls and the financial ones remain stable”.
perspectives
The main factor that sets off alarms in the market is the strong loss of reserves that the monetary authority has been experiencing since the beginning of 2023, in a complex scenario due to the drought. In the last week the BCRA parted with US$470 million in the MULC, already spinning five consecutive weeks with a net selling balance.
Forward, Glustein He pointed out: “For March, the IMF’s goal in relation to the accumulation of foreign currency is further and further away, despite the possibility of a soybean dollar III. Likewise, it will be necessary to see if there is any line of foreign indebtedness that allows the accumulation of foreign currency without the need to make disasters at the micro level and reach the goal proposed by the international organization. In summary, the MEP and the CCL should come under pressure in the coming weeks if the BCRA continues on the selling pathbut there is an expectation about measures that stabilize the dollar variables, especially financial ones, for March”.
For his part, Vitelli considered that “to the extent that the BCRA continues to intervene in the bonds, we have prospects of some stability, because it will not let financial prices move above convenient values.” Although he warned:The demand for dollars is strong in the MULC and the BCRA had problems accumulating reserves, which could cause them to withdraw from the bond repurchase and awaken a bullish rally in the prices. Likewise, this could be boosted by monthly inflation of 6% and a drop in the demand for pesos”.
Source: Ambito
