Not to mention negative interest rate returns. Last week from here it was warned that investors and funds were emigrating with the long weekend, fleeing from the Lelites. Now they fear more informal pressure in the market to participate with greater impetus in the next placements.
Luckily, it seems that the Central Bank, after the latest measures (it had been losing about US $ 50 million a day), manages to buy. The same in the market, they discount the tightening of the stocks to the dollar because if the import wave is not stopped, the banknotes will run out at the BCRA.
And the new SDRs have already flown, and not much can be expected from exporters until the end of the year. Therefore, given the meager stock of available reserves, it is speculated that, with a view to the first quarter of 2022, they will allow currencies to enter the dollar CCL to sectors such as mining or energy. But also, it could be expected, if the negotiation with the IMF matures well, after the results of the elections, with the new agreement contemplating fresh funds since from the previous program, some US $ 10 billion remained undisbursed, which even could be used to disassemble the Leliq and Passes. We will see.
In the Zoom it is perceived that the market is sown with doubts and worried from the PASO. Investors are out of their comfort zone. That is why there is talk of the “service” that the official dollar will need in the face of the passivity of the gap at unsustainable levels in the medium term. And also the one that should have the rates.
In this regard, a well-known economist related to the libertarians explained to his clients that in 2022 it seemed that all the adjustment would come from the subsidies side, but the Budget did not contemplate the recent increases in energy. Intríngulis flower. And on the debt, they already run chills observing the chronogram of maturities of the public debt in pesos. A serious challenge ahead will be to renew the mountains of maturities that are already falling at the beginning of next year. For now, the debate between CER vs. dollar linked, is very opinionated. Although more flirting with those indexed by CER.
After the long weekend at the tables, recent passes in the market were commented, such as that of the former Moody’s, Maria Moyano Hidalgo to the manager AdCap Securities as a senior corporate debt strategist in the team he leads Agustin Honig. The landing of Puente in Miami continues to be discussed via a license as a broker-dealer and another as a Registered Investment Advisor. The new office was opened through Puente Holding UK, its UK subsidiary. Meanwhile in Uruguay, the Central Bank approved a new regulation in the local market that can open the door of the local market to international managers. Banks, securities intermediaries and managers may outsource the powers of administration of national or foreign investment management funds.
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