After the announcement of the exchange of dollarized bonds in the hands of agencies and dependencies of the public sector and after raffling the first debt test in pesos in March last week, The Government will complete this Wednesday the financing in pesos for the month, with a new call for bids in which it will seek to renew payments for something more than $280,000 million.
In the first call last week, with the menu of bonuses offered being quite wide and diverse, the Ministry of Economy achieved a refinancing percentage of 114%. He had to face commitments for $367,000 million and managed to get the market to lend him $426,000 million.
Due to the terrible drought that has been affecting the countryside since the end of last year, 2023 tax revenue will be greatly affected, as the public sector numbers for January and February already indicate, that jeopardize the goals agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
In that context, GMA Capital assures that “net financing should assume an even more leading role” if the Government is not willing to carry out a strong adjustment of expenditures in an electoral context. The private consultant assures, meanwhile, that “Private investors still do not find much appetite in instruments maturing after 2024.”
GMA Capital notes that last week’s Treasury tender “showed a relatively acceptable result in terms of rollover.” He points out that in addition to achieving a renewal level of 114% “the placement term of the instruments was relatively improved (from 100 to 170 days) thanks to the placement of Dual bonds and linked dollar maturing in 2024”.
Still, market analysts They see that there is still an important mass of pesos that remain in private hands that mature before the change of government. 74% of the amount that was negotiated in the bidding of last Wednesday, March 22, was placed again for short terms and will be back in June and August.
68% of the instruments offered in the first call were indexed and in addition, higher interest rates had to be validated. A discount letter to June cut with an effective annual interest rate of 122%.
On the other hand, it was learned that in March the Government once again made use of the temporary advances from the Central Bank to finance itself, a resource that it had not used for eight months, so it is easy to infer that the fiscal numbers for the month are not very good either. . The Treasury had to ask the BCRA for $130,000 million.
alternative funding
While, The announcement of the public intrasector debt swap opens the possibilities of a change in the dynamics of financing in pesos. The fundamental objective of this measure is to ensure financing in local currency to the Treasury for the rest of the year.
GMA Capital indicates that public entities, without taking into account the BCRA, have almost US$4,000 million of Bonares at market price, which equals $1.5 trillion.
By selling them to the private sector, 70% of those pesos would be placed in Dual bonds maturing in 2036assuring the Government financing without going directly through the window of the Central Bank.
Source: Ambito
