If the projections materialize, It would be the highest data since August last yearwhen according to INDEC inflation was 7%. The food item, meanwhile, would have slowed down in relation to the previous month, although it continues to grow strongly.
For case, the GBA CPI What does the consultant measure? ecolatin climbed 7.4% in March, accumulating an annual increase of 107.5% and “consolidating the acceleration verified in the first two months.” In February, this indicator had registered a rise of 6.6%, in line with what was released by INDEC.
“So, accumulated a rise of 21.8% in the first quarter of the year, compared to the 14.9% that accumulated until March last year. Our uncontrolled CPI Core rose in line with the average, while the measurement most associated with mass consumption marked an increase of 6.2%”, they explained from the firm.
The increase was driven by the categories of education and clothingadded to various punctual increases in regulated (private schools; prepaid; transportation; fuel; water and gas rates; TV, cable and internet; domestic service). “For reasons seasonalMarch tends to be a month with higher monthly inflation than the monthly average for the rest of the year, where the greatest increases in Clothing -due to the change of season- and Education -due to the start of classes- tend to affect them,” they explained from Ecolatina .
For its part, from the consultancy C&T recorded an increase of 7% for the CPI that they relieve in the GBA, “which implies a new acceleration of the rate of increase in prices” (in February, according to this firm, the rise had been 6.2%).
“So, the inflation rate was the highest in the last 7 months and it also exceeded the peak of March 2022. In this way, the twelve-month variation continued to rise, and reached 107.7% for the CPI C&T”, they explained from the consultant, and clarified: “If the INDEC CPI yielded 7 %, official inflation will be around 102.9% nationwide.
According to this survey, “Education led the rises in March, with an increase of 14.9%, reflecting the increase in fees as well as the costs of supplies, books and educational materials, while clothing increased more than 7%”. “Several relevant items had increases of more than 7% in March, such as other goods and services, due to the rise in cigarettes,” they added.
“For the month of April we estimate inflation around 6%, as a result of increases in regulated prices and rates (electricity, buses, domestic service, prepaid, schools) and the expected dynamics for the rest of the items”, highlighted from C&T.
The CPI, which measures the Freedom and Progress Foundationwhich had a rise in March 7.3% (it had registered an increase of 5.7% in February). “The inflationary acceleration in the month of March was something that had been anticipated. However, once again breaking the barrier of 7% monthly inflation is a new blow to wages in general terms, but especially for workers in the informal sector. Let us remember that in 2022 inflation was 94.8% and unrecorded private wages increased 65.4%,” explained Eugenio Marí, chief economist at Libertad y Progreso.
food inflation
Although headline inflation is estimated to have accelerated in March compared to February, in the case of food the trend is the opposite, although still in high numbers.
“Food and beverages slowed down their rate of increase to 6.7% per month, from 10.6% in February, where a moderation played in favor (even at high levels) in beef (+15%), vegetables (-4.5%) and fruit (+6.1%). In the opposite direction, poultry meat (+10.5%), eggs (+24.2%) and dairy products played against. However, in the last 12 months the item shows an increase of 111% ”, they explained from Ecolatina.
Meanwhile, in the measurement of C&T, food and beverages rose 7.7% in March, “which implies a moderation after almost 10% in February, but it means a high rate.” “Meat moderated its rise, especially in recent weeks, although it averaged a 9% rise in the month. Oils, baked goods and beverages showed a monthly slowdown, while dairy products, fruits and especially vegetables accelerated the rise”, they explained.
Source: Ambito
