This Friday the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic unveiled a new Survey of Market Expectations (REM). The monitoring shows the main short and medium term macroeconomic forecasts that they habitually perform specialized peoplelocal and foreign, on the evolution of selected variables of the Argentine economy, how inflation or the dollar.
The published results belong to a survey carried out between March 29 and 31, 2023. Forecasts were considered 40 participantsamong whom are 26 consultants and research centers local and international and 14 financial entities from Argentina.
In the third survey of the yearanalysts estimated monthly inflation of 7% for March 2023 and inflation for the entire year of 110% year-on-year (10.2 pp above the forecast of the previous survey). Those who best predicted this variable in the short term (TOP-10) also expect inflation of 7% for March 2023, and 108.5% year-on-year for the year (5.7 pp higher than the February survey). For February 2023, the median of the estimates of those who participated in the previous REM survey suggested inflation of 6.1% per month, while the data observed in that month turned out to be 6.6% (0.5 percentage points —pp— higher than forecast). In turn, the and REM participants revised forecasts for all periods, placing inflation at 90% yoy for 2024 (8.3 pp higher than previous REM) and in 54.6% yearly (+0.9 pp) for the year 2025.
The REM analysts forecast the average nominal official exchange rate of $215 per dollar for April 2023 (6.0% expected monthly variation) and those who more accurately predicted this variable in the short term they projected that the average nominal official exchange rate for the same period is located at $215.19 per dollar (6.1% monthly variation).
Regarding the Core CPIthe analysts projected a monthly variation of 6.8% for March (0.8 pp above the forecast of the previous survey), higher than the forecast of those who best projected this variable for the short term (6.5% monthly). The REM participants revised their core inflation forecasts for 2023 upwards, placing them at 109.8% year-on-year (12.3 pp more than the previous REM), and by 2024, at 94.2% year-on-year (6.3 pp above the February survey). For the 2025 annual period, analysts projected core inflation of 51.9% year-on-year (0.7 pp higher than the previous REM).
Those who participate in the REM expect a level of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2023 lower than that of 2022 by 2.7 points (-2.7 pp lower than what was projected in the previous REM), while the TOP-10 of those who best predicted economic growth in the past projects, on average, a fall of 3.0% (a correction to the decrease of 2.2 pp with respect to the previous REM). For 2024, REM participants estimate an average annual growth of 0.7% (0.3 pp lower than the February survey).
For April 2023, those who participate in the REM forecast a BADLAR rate for private banks of 72.60%, higher than the average rate registered during the month of March 2023 (70.98%). Who best predicted the rate in the short termon average, that it is located in 72.42% in the month of April 2023.
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As soon as to the value of exports (FOB), those who participate in the REM estimate an amount, for 2023, of US$74,391 million, higher than the forecast of the members of the TOP-10 who projected the value of exports at US$73,813 million. Regarding imports (CIF) for the year 2023, the projections for the set of participants of REM were located at US$71,195 million, while the members of the TOP-10 estimated them at US$71,313 million. Thus, the participants of the REM contemplates, for the year 2023, a year-on-year drop of 15.9% in the value of exports and 12.7% for imports.
Those who participate in the REM estimate for the first quarter of 2023 an unemployment rate of 7.0% of the Economically Active Population (PEA; -0.5 pp with respect to the previous REM). For the members of the TOP10, the unemployment rate would have been 6.9% during the first quarter of 2023. In both cases, they provide for a go up unemployment rate during the year 2023.
Finally, hea projection of the nominal primary fiscal deficit of the Non-Financial National Public Sector (SPNF) carried out by the participants for 2023 was located in $3.8 billion. Likewise, analysts forecast a primary deficit of $3.1 billion by 2024. The average of the 10 most accurate forecasters over the past year for this variable expects a deficit of $3.439 billion by 2023.
Source: Ambito
