From the sector, according to sector surveys, expectations of sustaining the growth achieved last year have also been reduced in recent months. However, highlight the importance of maintaining a fluid dialogue with the Governmentfind the way expedite imports for sectors that can generate foreign exchange and also request the establishment of a differential exchange rate for those who export.
According to data released by INDEC, in February the manufacturing industry contracted 1.2% monthly without seasonal adjustment and 1.4% in the interannual comparison. “Product of the fall observed in the month of February and the erratic behavior of the previous year, the industry currently operates with a level of activity 0.8% below that observed in the month of December 2022”, they pointed out in this regard from the consultant GCL.
And, when projecting what can happen with this sector in the coming months, they detailed: “With a year 2023 punished by a severe drought, which is estimated to subtract around US$15,000 million from exports, we hope that the regulations on access of imported inputs are maintained and/or deepened to preserve reserve levels. This will affect the operation of the industry, which is why we project a drop of up to 5.5% annual average compared to 2022”.
For their part, from the consultant Orlando Ferreres they pointed out: “Our baseline projection anticipates a contraction in industrial activity for the coming monthsharmed mainly by the lack of dollars for the necessary imports for the sector, by the expected decline in consumption, and by the effect that the drought will continue to have on the crushing industry”.
Industry projections
Meanwhile, the survey released days ago by the UIA, points out that the first data for 2023 indicate that the slowdown observed during the second part of last year “was maintained”. “With this outlook, business expectations for the year continue at low levels, both in SMEs and large companies. According to the latest UIA survey, although the downward trend of the latest surveys stopped, only 31% of the companies expected a better economic situation for their company in the coming months, when at the beginning of 2022 more than the half expected it ”, they expressed from the entity.
In this scenario, Daniel Rosato, head of Industriales Pymes Argentinos (IPA), reviewed what measures can be adopted in order to sustain the level of production that the sector had last year.
“The lack of dollars can affect some sectors. But what we must do, which in fact we achieved through different meetings that we had, is to seek to improve the relationship of that company that is in difficulties, so that imports can be unblocked, so that they can produce and export”, Rosato explained to Ambit.
“With regard to imports of raw materials, to those companies that export, but need a greater volume of raw material, to be able to export, that allows them to import with the written commitment that they undertake to export,” he added and detailed: “Industrial activity and demand are. There are specific cases to solve. Dialogue, as always, is important”.
In this sense, the head of the IPA pointed out: “We are asking as we go along that some things be solved, because there were meetings and they were solved. For example, to reverse the fall in industrial exports, we ask for the ‘SME dollar’. Because the drought affected exports. The soybean dollar is great, because they are going to liquidate more, but we also ask for a dollar for industrial SMEs to be able to export more”.
“We ask for a 90-day trial: if it doesn’t work, we go back as we were. If it works, more foreign currency enters, exports grow, it is favorable for everyone. It is a request that we have been making, because we see that there are SMEs that can export more, if they have a more competitive dollar,” highlighted Rosato, who concluded: “If we look for a way to benefit those who can export and generate foreign currency, that will help sustain the economy. Because there are companies that can export and generate added value”.
On the other hand, from the UIA they also expressed days ago “their concern about an AFIP resolution that once again increases the tax pressure on the formal sector.” It is as a result of a resolution that determined the “suspension of the VAT and Profit exclusion certificate for importers.”
“AFIP Resolution 5339/2023, published in the Official Gazette on March 29, suspends the certificates of exclusion from the IIGG and VAT collection regime for imports of goods until December 31, 2023 and makes it impossible to calculate the collection in advances of Income Tax and the calculation of VAT collection is temporarily limited. This implies the deferral of the computation of perceptions for 9 months ”, they explained from the entity.
Source: Ambito
