According to private surveys, vegetables climbed 7.9% in the first week of the month. The item once again adds pressure to general inflation.
Next Friday, the INDEC will release the data inflation of March. According to consultants, a variation is expected around the 7% (after 6.6% in February), driven above all by the different seasonal divisions. In addition, they anticipated that there would have been a slowdown in the foodwhich in the second month of the year had risen 9.8%, according to official figures.
However, that trend seems to have changed during the first days of April. It is that, as reflected by different private polls, Foods sped up in the first week of the month. By case, according to the consultant GCLIn the first week the rise in food averaged 2.5%, accelerating 0.7 pp compared to the previous week. In addition, the firm noted, the index “presented a monthly inflation of 4.8% average in the last four weeks and 5.6% end to end in the same period”.
The variation of the first week was above the same periods of the previous months: according to the firm, in March it had climbed 1.4%; in February 1.8% and in January, 2.3%. The vegetables boosted the increases in the first days of April: climbed 7.9%, while meat rose 2.6%, oils 2.6% and bakery products, cereals and pasta, 2%. Fruit, on the other hand, fell 2.5%.
Along the same lines, from the consultancy eco go pointed out that “Easter and long holidays through, the month started difficult in terms of inflation.” “The survey corresponding to the first week of April showed a variation of 2.0% with respect to the previous week. This implies an acceleration of the indicator, which doubled, increasing 1.2 pp in the margin”, he analyzed.
“With this data and considering a forecast variation of 1.5% for the remaining weeks, the inflation of food consumed at home in April would reach 7.0% per month”, they remarked from the firm.
Analysis
The acceleration in the price of food has a direct impact on the costs of basic baskets, which hits the most vulnerable sectors squarely. In fact, as analyzed Damian Di Pacedirector of the consulting firm Focus Market, “The variation in food prices in the month of March exceeded three interannual digits.”
“The drought has affected basic categories such as rice, yerba mate, fruits and vegetables, among others, and wreaked havoc on the entry of dollars into our country and food production in the primary sector of the economy.. Massa aspires to be able to improve the situation with the launch of the agricultural dollar, reimbursements from the IMF and loans from international organizations. However, from now on the external restriction with clamps will not have any changes or reversal, so the inflation floor will remain at 6% in the coming months,” the analyst explained.
Along the same lines, from Ecolatina they also project lower inflation for April than the estimate for March. “Faced with minor punctual and seasonal impacts, for April we expect a slowdown in inflation, although without breaking through 6%. During the month, the new round of updating electricity rates will have an impact, together with increases in domestic service (14%); buses and trains (6.7%); prepaid (2.4%) and private schools (3.4%)”, detailed from the consultant.
“Nevertheless, the first quarter left a high floor for the rest of the year, where inflationary inertia will continue to put pressure on the price level, fueled by a growing indexation and a shortening of contract terms (formal and informal)”, they concluded.
Source: Ambito
