Since the inauguration of Economy Minister Sergio Massa, the gap between the official dollar and the Cash with Settlement (CCL) dollar fell by approximately 44%. In turn, the difference with blue decreased by 39%.
For the Ministry of Economy, the management “strives to rearrange the macroeconomic variables”, a fact that managed to moderate the exchange tension generated by the departure of Martín Guzmán from the Palacio de Hacienda, at a time when the gap had reached a peak of 150%. The main objective of this arrangement, they indicate, is to lower inflation. They understand that the inflationary jump in February was influenced -in part- by the movement of financial dollars.
However, The narrowing of the gap, registered between August 2022 and last March, was not correlated with the decline in prices. Ambit consulted with various businessmen and financial analysts on whether the link between one variable and another is palpable.
Inflation for March will be published by INDEC next Friday, and both in the Government and in private consultancies they set a floor of 7%, thus marking an increase compared to the 6.6% of February. For Gustavo Berhead of Estudio Ber, although the gap “deflated”, the operators perceive a “lag” in the official dollar against the financiers, product of “the dynamics of the price increase and the accumulation of the stock of pesos”, which which motivates inflation “due to expectations and the strong growth of remunerated liabilities.”
Inside of Argentine Industrial Union (UIA), as a representative organization of the sector that contributes 16% of the national GDP, the proposal for fixing prices to the Government is recurrent. In this sense, technicians from the organization highlighted that Massa assumed the economic portfolio with “a panic gap given for political reasons, which was reasonably controlled”, but it was not enough to stabilize inflation. Because? In the UIA, two reasons stand out: the first, that most of the prices are governed by the official exchange rate, “at least the most important ones”, they clarify. Second, the multiplicity of factors that explain the 102% year-on-year inflation “exceeds the exchange rate gap”. The rise in tariffs, imported intermediate goods and the dynamics of short and upward parity negotiations are variables mainly indicated to explain inflationary inertia.
However, from the small table they mark a caveat about the gap: although they assure that it is not closely related to inflation, they warn that “growth will not be sustained”, as long as the dollar to import is the same to export. The warning is framed in a context where central financial organizations, such as the World Bank or JP Morgan, buried the growth projection for Argentina in 2023. Under this logic, the request for a devaluation, under the concept of “exchange unification”, is still valid. “Without reservations, it is a complex process, because you do not know at what value it could stabilize. But (removing the stocks) would be important for investments, there could be many more”, they tempt from the UIA. In turn, the drought and the quantified demands of the IMF add pressure on the scarce reserves of the Central Bank (BCRA). Thus, in the middle of the electoral season, a textile businessman points out the campaign thermometer in the gap: “The price of the CCL or MEP impacts the political question. If there is a sensation of running, they are going to move”.
Different is the gaze of the economist Juan Pablo Albornoz, from the consultancy Invecq, who understands that the gap established in the order of 80% crosses the expectations of businessmen, forced to emphasize “because it can complicate them.” According to the specialist, that the financial dollar is close to doubling the official one implies two types of inflation: near and future. “If companies see how adjusted the exchange balance is and project greater restrictions, they will seek to cover themselves by replacing products at the financial dollar, even though today they buy at the official dollar. Not only to ensure foreign exchange, but because the gap indicates, in the long run, a jump in the exchange rate”, Albornoz estimates and concludes: “We all know that the financial dollar is not going to adjust downward.”
Think about the latter Ricardo Delgado, head of the consulting firm Analytica: “As sectors feel the shortage of dollars, it is more likely that they will start looking at CCL as a reference cost. That will inflate prices more.” The economist measures the current gap, highlighting that it doubles the one that was maintained during the economic management of Axel Kicillof, around 40%.
“Inflation, with this level of gap, cannot drop beyond specific data. To reduce it, they want to generate more dollars, it is difficult for this government to do it in eight months. Consequently, we will continue this year with a high price increase”, reflects Delgado. For the moment, the bridge built by the Ministry of Economy to transit the year without a sudden devaluation is based on financing from multilateral organizations, such as the IDB or the World Bank, export incentives through the “agro dollar”, and the guarantee of IMF disbursements. At the same time, the market does not ignore the devaluation allusions highlighted by the opposition in the event of being elected to the next government, a factor with its own weight in price formation.
Source: Ambito
