The Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) further reduced its estimates of soybean and corn production for the 2022/2023 campaign in relation to the March forecasts at 4 million and 3 million tons, respectively.
Thus, the soybean harvest estimates went from 27 million tons in March to 23 million in April, 53% less than what was expected to be produced at the beginning of the campaign, while the loss for corn reaches 40%, with a decrease compared to March estimates from 35 million to 32 million tons.
These drops are due to a drought that “leaves the worst national yields of the last 15 agricultural cycles,” according to BCR and, in the case of soybeans, they also pointed out that “production is well below 2008/ 09, which ended at 31.8 million tons.”
“The ninth heat wave which began in the last days of February and ended on Sunday, March 19, was, in itself, a catastrophic weather event for the soy and the corn 2022/23″, evaluated the BCR in his latest monthly report, which highlights the worsening of the situation, taking into account that, “previously, the campaign was carried out on the worst climate scenario of at least the last 60 years.”
Thermo-hydric stress plummeted yields
That heat wavehe added, “aggravated the effects of thermo-hydric stress taking them to an extreme that is unprecedented for the sector”. In the case of the soythe loss of area went from being estimated at 2.68 million hectares, at the beginning of March, to 3.58 million, with yields that “have plummeted by further limiting the number of grains per square meter and by drastically affecting the weight of grains”, alerted the entity.
“This way It is estimated, in April, a national soybean yield of 18.6 quintals per hectare“, compared to the 20.3 expected in March, says the report. It is, as the Stock Exchange warned, “the lowest yield of the last 15 productive cycles in Argentina, being even below 19 qq/ha of the (campaign) 2008/09”.
For corn, meanwhile, the estimated yield for April is 53.6 quintals per hectare (57.8 qq/ha in March) and is “the worst registered national yield“, also, since the 2008/09 campaign, indicated the BCR.
This is how you suffer in the different provinces
In its report, the Stock Exchange noted that “the core region, downtown Buenos Aires and a good part of Cordova confirm a severe fall in the expectations of the yields of late maize”, although “good productive chances” are expected for the southeast of Buenos Aires, some sectors of the southwest of Cordoba, together with the provinces of San Luis and Santiago del Estero, which They help to offset the estimated yield drops.
“Anyway, regarding March, Córdoba loses 1.75 million tonsBuenos Aires, 1 million and Santa Fe, 380,000 tons,” the entity pointed out.
Regarding soybean yields, “the greatest discount is in Córdoba, with 4.1 qq/ha less than a month ago, and a cut of almost 2 million tons”, while Buenos Aires “fell 2.3 qq /ha, discounting 1.6 million tons”, they described, while Santa Fe is “very far from the 27.5 qq/ha of last year and the provincial yield is updated to 14.6 qq/ha (2.1 qq/ha less than 30 days ago)”, with a discount of 890,000 tons.
Source: Ambito
