He National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) published the data for the consumer price index (CPI) for March and exceeded all private expectations by standing at 7.7%, while all analysts anticipated that it would be closer to 7%. The item that increased the most in the third month of 2023 was Education, which rose 29.1%. The second segment that became more expensive is clothing and footwear, while food increased 9.3%.
the rise of Food and non-alcoholic beverages (9.3%) It was the one that had the greatest impact in all regions and, within the division, the rise in Meat and derivatives stood out. In turn, although to a lesser extent, the rises in vegetables, tubers and legumes stood out, followed by milk, dairy products and eggs and, finally, by fruit.
The segments of lower rise were recreation and culture (4.4%) and Communication (1.9%) in the third month of the year. housing and services prices rose 6.5%, mainly affected by increases in water and gas and Health it increased 5.7%, as a result of the adjustment in prepayments and the increase in medicines. TransportMeanwhile, the rise is accelerating due to the indexation of bus prices, combined with the increase in the value of cars and the rise in fuel prices.
Inflation: a seasonal increase in education that worsened
Yes ok it is usual for education expenses to rise in March Because it is the month of the beginning of classes in Argentina, so it is a seasonal increase, the level at which this category rose is striking, which rose well above the others.
This is highlighted by a report by the consulting firm CyT Asesores Económicos which maintains that “the item with the highest increase in the month was educationas it usually happens every March, but the jump of this opportunity exceeded expectations“. In any case, they clarify that the interannual variation of the item reached 96%, still below the headline inflation.
Eliana Scialabba, Executive Director of the Center for Economic Studies Argentina XXI (CEEAXXI), contributes, for her part, that “the prices of the item had lagged behind the rest” and details, consequently, that the tariffs of private institutes, of basic education and like everything related to school clothing made a predictable correction. “From now on, only the increases in the monthly adjustments of the institutions will remain, but broadly speaking, the increase is a seasonal trap,” says Scialabba.
A key element is that the incidence of Education was not a couple in the whole country. There are regions in which it rose above the general average. In fact, in the Northwest region of the country, the prices of Education increased 46.9% per month in Patagonia, 45.7% in the Northwest of the country, 31.6% in the Pampean Region, 28.4% in Cuyo , 22.6% in GBA and 22.8% in the Northeast.
Thus, accumulated inflation to March is 21.7% in 2023, and year-on-year already reaches 104.3%, according to official data. Given these data, the economist Federico Glustein highlights Ambit that “the REM, which forecast 7% for March and 110% annually, could have fallen short, since there are no inflationary anchors in action, because everything applied so far not only did not work, but was part of the spiraling that is happening”.
For his part, the economist and director of MyR Asesores Económicos, Fabio Rodríguez, points out that “refusing to stabilize with the plan around August 2022, and starting to accommodate relative prices somewhat was the original error of the current economic team“And he believes that, now, all expectations are unanchored.
Thus, beyond the one-off rise in Education in March, Scialabba warns that “we have to be careful in focusing on a single sector, since the Argentine inflationary dynamic covers all items with similar increases, with particular exceptions in the sector of the food”.
The foods that rose the most in GBA
The food They are, without a doubt, the elements that most affect the daily life of citizens and the increases in this category are the ones that most affect the lowest sectors of society, since a large part of their income tends to go to purchase of those elements, essential for survival.
That is why it is important to review what were those that increased the most in March in Greater Buenos Aires (GBA), the area with population in Argentina, which usually has large sectors of inhabitants from more vulnerable social sectors. According to INDEC, lettuce is the food that increased the most last month in GBA, with a rise of 58.5%; followed by orange, with an increase of 43.6%, in third place was round tomato (+37.3%), chicken eggs increased 25.7%, whole chicken, 26.7% and banana rose 19.9%.
Meanwhile, they registered price drops in onion (-17.2%), delicious apple (-8.1%), pumpkin (-6%) and potato (-3.8%).
Source: Ambito
