Parallel dollars jumped strongly in recent days. Given this, Ambit speak Gustavo Neffa, director of Research for Traderswho detailed What do you think are the causes of the increases?and among them, he considered that the estimates of the Government on the entrance of currencies through the agricultural dollar are “very optimistic”.
“There was a fairly strong rise between yesterday and today in everything that parallel dollars are and obviously there is an impact on the informal dollar”described Neffa.
This day, the blue dollar rose $10 and was offered at $418, its new nominal record, after climbing this Monday $8. It should be noted that in the last two rounds he scored an increase of $18. Stock market dollars, meanwhile, were not far behind. The CCL shot up to $425.96 and the MEP rose to $408.86.
Regarding the causes, the economist maintained that this situation responds “for lack of reserves”although he said that it was opened “a little window” with the official agricultural dollar program, “While it started off slow, it started to take effect more towards the end of last week.”
But, despite this, Neffa considered that the government’s estimates are “very optimistic.” “It has been read that there were estimates of US$5,000 million for soybeans, US$4,000 million in settlements within 90 days for the rest of the regional economies, with a total of US$9,000 millions”described and expanded: “I think it’s too exaggeratedbut hey, we know that the agro-export sector has been withholding a lot of foreign currency while waiting for this little window to be able to settle at a higher price.”
This situation, he specified, fosters doubt about what the exchange rate really is and before this, he explained that economic agents seek to hedge against the devaluation of the peso.
Regarding the reasons for the rise in the day, he said that “there is not much to hold on to as specific news in this process, but rather a preview of what could become between now and the end of the year: a stampede of the official exchange rate“.
Neffa also said that “You have to monitor the dollars in the financial system, which are quite calm, above US$16,000 million”. In this regard, he highlighted the inflow to the Common Investment Funds (FCI) linked dollar (adjusted by the official exchange rate) and the withdrawal of funds with CER and Money Market. On the exit of these assets, he differentiated them from the process “That was seen back in July of last year, which obviously determined a very strong dollarization.”
Finally, Neffa referred to the international assets of the Central Bank: “The net reserves give us zero, that is, a little more, a little less. Technically it gives a little more than US$300 million, but basically it is a net reserve that does not exist, with which it is a zero value, and therefore the market acts”.
Source: Ambito
