The monthly report of LatinFocus Concensus Forecast where it gathers the opinion of 40 banks and local and foreign economic consultants renewed their forecasts on the dollar, at the same time that they anticipated a sharp rise in inflation after the hard data of 7.7% provided by INDEC last week.
Inflation
According to the new document, inflation will close 2023 at 107%, above expectations (+7p.p). The new report is more pessimistic than the previous one regarding the CPI in a year that will be complex in macroeconomic terms, not only because of the drought but also because of the election year. It is worth remembering that a month earlier, those surveyed determined that inflation was going to close at 100.3%.
The most pessimistic forecast in terms of inflation is given by FIEL technicians at 130% while the most optimistic forecast is 76.1% and corresponds to the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Dollar
Regarding the exchange rate, most economists estimate that the official dollar will end at $363 at the end of December. This is an increase of $15 from the previous month’s report.
The maximum forecast for 2023 is one dollar at $513, authored by the OJF consultancy, while the minimum is $261, according to Torino Capital.
Economic activity
In this complex context, a retraction in economic activity of 1.9% is expected. Last month, they had forecast a contraction of 0.5%.
The most pessimistic forecast marks a fall of 4.6% for this year and the most optimistic a growth of 1.3 percent. The median response is a drop of 2.2 percent.
Source: Ambito
