According to official data released by INDEC, wages fell in real terms by 2.2% in 2022 and they started this year with a similar trend: in January, a contraction of 1.2% per month and 3.3% per year was registered. And, although next Friday the data for February will be known, the jump in inflation in March augurs a complex scenario for the coming months.
According to the RIPTE data, the salary of stable registered workers grew by 8.4% in February, above inflation for that month (it was 6.6%). It is that, according to analysts, the parity they helped “protect” -at least, in part- the level of income. In any case, the reality is not the same for the unregistered or informal sector.
In fact, as analyzed by the Mediterranean Foundation, based on data from the INDEC salary index, “in the 12 months of 2022, the registered private salary received 7 months of year-on-year drop in real terms”. “In the case of the wages of informal workers, falls were observed in the 12 months of last year,” he highlighted.
“At the same time, expectations are not optimistic for 2023, since for both types wages fell year-on-year in January and February. In turn, it should be noted that the decrease in income in the case of informal workers is 15% in these months, ”the study detailed.
In this regard, Santiago Manoukian, Head of Research at Ecolatina, warned that a new drop in income is expected in real terms for this year: “This acceleration of the inflationconsolidating a higher inflation floor than we had been having, generates more complications, especially for the sector that is most unprotected by parities. Because the parities, eventually, can be renegotiated: although in the short term it will still ‘eat’ real wages from the private sector, in some way, it can be indexed. But the informal is much more unprotected. And with this acceleration, even more”.
In this sense, from the consultancy Abeceb, they projected: “In 2023 a decrease in private consumption is expected (-0.4% 2023 vs. 9.8% 2022) hand in hand with a recessive level of activity, with higher interest rates in real terms that could limit indebtedness and wages that are expected to decline in real terms by 0.8% yoy, prompting consumers to be more cautious.
inflation vs. “new parities”
The evolution of inflation during the last months raised a new scenario at the time of joint negotiations. “It could be said that the annual parities disappeared. Annual parities are no longer negotiated, they are all quarterly or -at most- semi-annual”, Luis Campos, coordinator of the Observatory of Social Law of the CTA-Autonomous, told Ámbito. “In a context where inflation has not only accelerated in recent months, but there is also a lot of uncertainty about the future, it is difficult to think of a price and wage mechanism that goes beyond the short term,” he added.
In any case, as detailed by Campos, “the salary of registered workers lost very little against inflation, marginally”. But with rising inflation, the race between prices and wages is taking place at an ever-increasing speed“, graphic.
With this context, he added that it is difficult to make any projection that goes “beyond two or three months”: “We are entering a dangerous dynamic from which no one is saved, even those activities that have greater bargaining power. It is a complicated scenario. Parities are a tool to at least not lose so much. Until a stabilization is generated in other economic variables, starting with inflation, the parities will continue to go towards a scenario of short negotiations and try to adjust so as not to lose so much.
The new modality of joint negotiations was also exposed in a survey carried out by the WTW consultancy, on “Salaries and Benefits”, in which more than 400 companies from various sectors participated: there, 7 out of 10 firms said that they will give four or more increases this year; while the rest evaluate giving three salary adjustments.
Source: Ambito
