The labor market barometer fluctuates between 90 and 110 – the value 100 would reflect a neutral situation on the labor market. How is it currently?
The German labor market will be a bit chilly towards the end of the year – but unemployment is likely to fall further.
The labor market barometer of the Nuremberg Institute for Employment Research (IAB) fell for the second time in a row in October after an extremely strong summer, as the institute announced on Tuesday.
At 104.7 points, the barometer fell by 1.5 points in October and therefore quite significantly. In a long-term comparison, this is still a good value: The barometer fluctuates between 90 and 110 – the value 100 would reflect a neutral situation on the labor market.
The indicator suggests that the labor market is continuing to develop favorably, albeit at a restrained pace, the IAB said. “After the furious catch-up race from the summer, the positive labor market development is taking a more moderate course,” said Enzo Weber, head of the IAB research department for forecasts and macroeconomic analyzes. The Federal Employment Agency will present its October statistics this Thursday.
The employment component of the barometer remains positive, falling only marginally in October. This shows that the companies in Germany want to continue to hire. “Employment should be supported by the re-entry of people who had withdrawn from the labor market during the crisis, and by short-term catch-up effects in connection with migration,” said the IAB.
In contrast, the unemployment component of the IAB labor market barometer fell sharply in October by 3.0 points to 102.7 points. This still signals falling unemployment, but it is falling significantly more slowly than in the phase immediately after the lockdown. «The demand for labor remains high. Still, unemployment will not fall any longer as quickly. After the crisis, which lasted 1.5 years, there are risks of entrenchment in the form of higher long-term unemployment, ”said Weber.
The IAB labor market barometer has been measuring the situation on the German labor market as a leading indicator since November 2008. It is based on a monthly survey by the Federal Employment Agency among all employment agencies.
Jane Stock is a technology author, who has written for 24 Hours World. She writes about the latest in technology news and trends, and is always on the lookout for new and innovative ways to improve his audience’s experience.
