The head of the Latin American Economic Research Foundation (FIEL), Daniel Artana, suggested that the Government could negotiate a new fiscal target with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of the order of 2.5% of GDP, while he dismissed the version that technicians from Together for Change are blocking the talks with the organization.
Artana considered that the fiscal scenario of Argentina is “complicated because the income from withholdings due to the drought is missing and because they anticipated the liquidations of the soybean 1 and soybean 2 solar farm.”
On Thursday night, the Palacio de Hacienda released the National Public Sector data for March, which showed an accumulated deficit of $689,000 million with an excess of $257,000 million above the goal set for the first quarter.
Artana considered that the Government’s policy of anticipating collections made at the end of 2022 is like “a dog biting its tail”.
“In the first quarter, government revenues fell by 6% in real terms, adjusted for inflation,” said the FIEL economist.
In addition, he indicated that “more than spending fell in March, after having risen in January and February (that’s because they postponed payments) the fiscal situation is difficult and they did not meet the goal.”
Private data indicates that in March primary spending fell 17% in real terms, but, according to the FIEL professional, this would have been caused by accumulating floating debt, a resource that was used at the end of 2022 to close the numbers for the year. past.
“Surely there will be a negotiation with the Fund. What is the most likely thing they will tell you: ‘if the collection fell by 0.6% of GDP due to the drought and your goal was 1.9% deficit, now the goal is 2.5%'”, he estimated.
In that sense, Artana said that “The question is whether they will reach 2.5% because that requires fiscal discipline on the spending side in an election year that is complex.
In relation to the denunciation of the director for the Conosur before the IMF, Sergio Chodos, that opposition economists are blocking the negotiations that the Government is carrying out, Artana stated that “it seems like a big nonsense.”
“To make an accusation you have to put the evidence on the table. You have an opposition that, compared to Peronism in what was the 2019 transition, are Carmelite nuns,” he said in statements to Radio Rivadavia.
Likewise, he said: “Let them stop joking around. You had the virtual President-elect heating up the exchange market with statements that were tremendous. Today, there is no candidate priming the bomb. The opposition is acting with great responsibility in a particularly difficult situation when they are passing a large number of bombs for after December 10.”
Source: Ambito
