In the last 13 days, the Dolar blue jumped from $391 to $462 registered this afternoon. The movements in the informal market they pushed the exchange rate gap with the official up to 110%. What can be expected for the next few days, according to City analysts.
The bullish raid that the currency has undergone in the last fortnight returned to show a new rise this Monday when it went from trading $442 to closing at around $462. Despite the context, the central bank He came on stage and made purchases for US$106 million (third consecutive round).
The Economist Frederick Glustein spoke with Ambit regarding the escalation of the informal currency and pointed out three aspects to take into account to understand the recent reasons. On the one hand, he pointed “the inconveniences that there were to operate financial dollars by the BCRA”, but also he also pointed out “dollarization expectations as a result of the previous election and a rise in rates that did not correspond to the market’s expectation”.
At the same time, he explained that another of the causes of the recent rise is the constant need for companies to earn dollars for imports.
Asked about the prospects for this week, he said that “most likely it will rise slightly in weekly terms” but far from the level observed in recent days: “Today’s escalation should not likely have an aftershock in the coming days.”
Regarding a possible downward correction, the economist considered that the rise “is going to stop” but “it is difficult” for the price to fall, unless the Government takes measures to stop the escalation “such as some type of release of the stocks, a devaluation of the official or lower inflation”.
Blue dollar continues to rise
Glustein He also remarked that this economic volatility generates a greater withdrawal of dollars from deposits, which is “an explosive combo that is reflected in a rise in the blue that still has room to rise if compared to inflation.” . “How much could I touch? $480 if he keeps it up,” she finished.
The Economist Juan Pablo Albornoz of Invecq He spoke to this medium and focused on the periods of takeoff and transitory stability that the blue dollar has throughout the year. “There are moments where volatility accelerates and then calms down. They are formally volatility clusters” she explained, adding that “that is currently happening”.
Regarding what can happen throughout the week, Albornoz said that “There doesn’t seem to be any prospect of a consistent easing any time soon.” Regarding its implication, he pointed out that “not only does the price accelerate, but also the movements are more abrupt.”
13 days after the start of the currency run, Joel Lupieri, economist of Epyca Consultants, He considered that “it seems clear that the government lacks the weapons to be able to alleviate the pressure on the blue dollar.” And he stated that “the lack of coordination of measures, where both the regulatory changes and the announced plans were innocuous, seem to have resulted in a greater degree of uncertainty.”
Lupieri affirmed that today it is the economic agents “who are running after the dollar” since “they are looking to anticipate new changes” in the event that the Government wants to move forward with measures that make access to the dollar more restrictive “or in its defect to cover itself from a possible devaluation/inflationary jump”.
“All this increases the tension on a sensitive issue such as the price of the dollar. All in all, it is to be hoped that the currency’s upward trend will continue until there is a clearer picture, both in terms of price stability and electorally.”He said as to what can be expected for the next few days.
Regarding what should happen for the currency to show a significant decline in its price, the economist pointed out that “without a clear plan that guarantees greater access to the general public, we will hardly see a substantial drop in the price of the dollar that is perceived today as ‘free’”.
Meanwhile, the currency continues its bullish streak and the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, is preparing to announce this week a series of measures aimed at increasing the volume of reserves to calm the waters. On the one hand, he will sign agreements with multilateral banks to obtain disbursements for US$1060 million. In addition, it plans to communicate oil investments for US$500 million and the start-up of the operation in yuan for importing companies.
Source: Ambito
