For March 2023 the median of the estimates of those who participated in the previous REM survey suggested inflation of 7% per month, while the data observed in that month turned out to be 7.7% (0.7 percentage points —pp— higher than the forecast ).
In turn, the REM participants revised the forecasts for all periods, placing inflation at 107.5% yoy for 2024 (17.5 pp higher than the previous REM) and at 55.5% yoy (+0, 9 pp) for the year 2025.
Regarding the CPI Coreanalysts projected a monthly variation of 7.5% for April (1.2 pp above the forecast of the previous survey), higher than the forecast of those who best projected this variable for the short term (7.4% monthly).
REM participants revised their core inflation forecasts upwards for 2023, placing it at 127.0% yoy (17.2 pp more than the previous REM), and for 2024, at 106.0% yoy (11.8 pp per above the March survey). For the 2025 annual period, analysts projected core inflation of 53.5% yoy (1.6 pp higher than the previous REM).
Dollar
The REM analysts corrected their projections of the upward nominal wholesale exchange rate. They forecast the nominal exchange rate average of $232.30 per dollar for the end of May (7.26% expected monthly variation) and those who predicted this variable with greater precision in the short term projected that the average nominal exchange rate for the same period would be located at $231.24 (6.78% monthly variation).
They also anticipate that the exchange rate will reach $398.50 in December 2023that is, 130.5% more than at the end of 2022.
The average of those who best predicted this variable for the short term in the past indicates that the nominal exchange rate for December 2023 would be located at $395.99, higher than the value they projected at the end of last month ($44.04 above the previous survey).
For its part, the analysts’ projection for December 2024 was $862.50 per dollar.
GDP
Those who participate in the REM expect the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to fall 3.1% by 2023 (implying a drop 0.4 pp higher than that projected in the previous REM), while the TOP-10 of those who best predicted economic growth in the past projects, on average, a reduction of 3.2% (a downward correction of 0.2 pp compared to the previous REM).
For 2024, REM participants estimate an average annual contraction of 0.2% (implying a variation in GDP 0.5 pp lower than forecast in March).
rates
For May, those who participate in the REM predicted a BADLAR rate of private banks of 86%, higher than the average rate registered during the month of April 2023 (74.24%).
Those who best predicted the rate in the short term foresee, on average, that it will be located at 85.23% in the month of May.
Exports and imports
Regarding the value of exports (FOB), those who participate in the REM estimate an amount, for 2023, of US$71,956 million, higher than the forecast of the members of the TOP-10 who projected the value of exports at US$71,606 million. Regarding imports (CIF) for the year 2023, the projections for the group of REM participants were located at US$70,529 million, while the members of the TOP-10 estimated them at US$69,144 million. Thus, the REM participants contemplate, for the year 2023, a year-on-year drop of 18.6% in the value of exports and 13.5% for imports.
Unemployment
Those who participate in the REM estimate that in the first quarter of 2023 there would have been an unemployment level of 7.1% of the Economically Active Population (EAP; +0.1 pp compared to the previous REM). For the members of the TOP-10, the unemployment rate would have been 6.9% during the first quarter of 2023. In both cases, they foresee a rise in the unemployment rate for the rest of the year to 7.5 % in Trim. IV-23.
Fiscal deficit
Finally, the projection of the nominal primary fiscal deficit of the National Non-Financial Public Sector (NFPS) made by the participants for 2023 was located at $4,016 billion. Likewise, analysts forecast a primary deficit of $2.786 billion for 2024. The average of the 10 most accurate forecasters over the past year for this variable expects a deficit of $3.552 billion for 2023.
In this report, the results of the survey carried out between April 26 and 28, 2023 were disseminated. Forecasts from 38 participants were considered, including 24 local and international consultants and research centers and 14 financial entities from Argentina, indicated the BCRA.
Source: Ambito
