The rise of the parallel dollars hit hard on the food price. During the month of April, inflation in the City marked a record of 7.8%, the highest in 11 years. Thus, an increase of 31.2% is accumulated in the first three months of the year and an interannual variation of 110.4%. In some products, the year-on-year rise reached almost 120%.
This variation of the IPCBA, as indicated by the General Directorate of Statistics and Censuses of the City, responded mainly to the category of Food and Beverages, Housing, water, electricity and gas, Restaurants and Hotels, Transportation, Equipment and Maintenance of the home and Clothes of Clothing and Footwear, which together explained 75.7% of the rise in the General Level.
Thus, Food and non-alcoholic beverages averaged a rise of 10.4%. The main boost came from Meats (11.5%), and Vegetables, tubers and legumes (19.9%). To a lesser extent, the increases in milk, dairy products and eggs (10.8%), Bread and Cereals (8.5%) stood out. This item registered an interannual variation of 119.5%.
– Housing, water, electricity and gas it increased 6.4% mainly impacting the increases in rental prices and the increases in the residential tariff for electricity service. This item registered an interannual variation of 118.6%.
– Restaurants and hotels averaged an increase of 8.2% as a result of increases in the prices of food prepared in restaurants, bars and food houses. This item registered an interannual variation of 130.9%.
– Home equipment and maintenance increased 9.3% as a result of domestic service adjustments. Next in importance were the rises in the values of large household appliances and cleaning products. This item registered an interannual variation of 113.3%.
– Clothing and footwear averaged a rise of 9.4% as a result of the seasonal behavior of the division. It registered an interannual variation of 117.7%.
Bad indicator for national inflation
The inflation data in the City always generates a certain impact while waiting for the national data measured by the INDEC. In this case, the City’s inflation coincides with the price dynamics that the market is also analyzing. On Friday, it is worth remembering, the Central Bank published Survey of Market Expectations (REM) where most market analysts estimate strong inflation for the whole year.
The analysts estimated inflation for the whole year of 126.4% year-on-year, that is, 16.4 percentage points (pp) above the forecast of the previous survey. And they projected a monthly CPI of 7.5% for April, above the 6.3% that they had calculated for this month in March
Those who best predicted this variable in the short term (TOP-10) expect inflation of 7.2% for April, and 126.5% yoy for 2023 (17.3 pp higher than the survey of the previous month).
For March 2023 the median of the estimates of those who participated in the previous REM survey suggested inflation of 7% per month, while the data observed in that month turned out to be 7.7% (0.7 percentage points —pp— higher than the forecast ).
In turn, the REM participants revised the forecasts for all periods, placing inflation at 107.5% yoy for 2024 (17.5 pp higher than the previous REM) and at 55.5% yoy (+0, 9 pp) for the year 2025.
Regarding the CPI Coreanalysts projected a monthly variation of 7.5% for April (1.2 pp above the forecast of the previous survey), higher than the forecast of those who best projected this variable for the short term (7.4% monthly).
REM participants revised their core inflation forecasts upwards for 2023, placing it at 127.0% yoy (17.2 pp more than the previous REM), and for 2024, at 106.0% yoy (11.8 pp per above the March survey). For the 2025 annual period, analysts projected core inflation of 53.5% yoy (1.6 pp higher than the previous REM).
Source: Ambito
