The data of inflation released by INDEC last Friday caused an adjustment in the number in the CPI forecast expected for all of 2023. In the last few hours, the latest May report prepared by Focus Economics, which brings together more than 40 national and international economists, was released. international and banks where they foresee a difficult scenario with inflation of 108% and a greater devaluation of the currency.
“Argentina will have the worst performance in the region this year. GDP will fall amid runaway inflation, a free-falling peso, dwindling savings, and sky-high interest rates. Global headwinds and a painful drought will make matters worse, as will the notable uncertainty in the run-up to October’s general elections,” the international survey details.
To conclude that the debt default risks “extremely high further cloud the prospects.
The consensus of analysts surveyed by FocusEconomics indicates that the economic activity would contract 2.4% in 2023which means a decrease of 0.5 percentage point compared to the estimate made last April.
Regarding inflation“inflation is projected to average notably higher this year than in 2022, amid depreciation of the peso and monetary financing of the fiscal deficit. Volatile energy prices and fiscal largesse ahead of October elections are risks key”, summed up the economists in the report.
In this way, the FocusEconomics panelists see that the inflation will increase 108.4% on average in 2023which represents an increase of 5.6 percentage points with respect to what was forecast a month ago.
How much will the dollar be by 2023
As for the expected price for the official wholesale dollar for the end of December, The economists surveyed show a worrying upward trend, in an environment where the drought shows a drop in the foreign exchange settlements of the field harvest, which may decrease by some US$20,000 million compared to last year’s sales .
“He weight should lose more ground amid the prolonged monetary financing of the fiscal deficit”, sentences the survey.
Find out more – I followed the price of the blue dollar, official, CCL and MEP in Argentina
In short, the consensus price for the US wholesale ticket for the end of the year is $391, a figure that represents a rise of 28 pesos (7.7%) compared to the price expected for December in the previous report (April).
So, if you get to the 2023 epilogue with this projection for the value of the wholesale dollar, the cumulative currency devaluation throughout the year would be 121%. A figure higher than the forecast inflation of 108.4% for the same period.
Likewise, the figure projected in the FocusEconomics consensus ($391) is being located well below the value that is being negotiated in the operations of the Matba-Rofex futures and options market. There, a big jump in the price of the wholesale dollar is expected by the end of December, since the price of the contracts for the end of the year is $538. In other words, 147 pesos more (37.6%) than in the report.
Regarding the highest forecasts for the price of the official wholesale exchange rate for the end of the year, the ranking is led by the consultancy Eco Go, with an estimate of $645. Then come C&T Asesores ($516), MAP ($507), Econviews ($491) and Empiria Consultores, with $487.
Source: Ambito
