Latest inflation data (8.4%) and the purchasing power drop of wages continue impacting the level of consumption. Latest survey made by the Argentine Chamber of Commerce (CAC) sample great possibilities that him massive consume experience a strong fall.
According to ACCthe numbers of the latest surveys of the sector show some alarm signals, such as falls in the sale of mass consumption products and other items such as dressalso show negative expectations for the next few months.
In the same way, private consultants they estimate that the May inflation be higher than 9%which will have an even greater impact on the level of consumption.
household expenses
According to the survey of the ACChe consumption indicatorwhich establishes the evolution of the expenditure made by the homes in goods and servicesin April showed a rise of 1.5% year-on-year. However, the figure reflects that the deceleration observed during the last months in the interannual variation it was accentuated.
“Far from the double-digit growth observed during practically the entirety of the post-pandemic, the latest data shows a advance of only 1.5% and everything seems to indicate that negative numbers will be observed in May,” they said from the entity.
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“The index during April positions the household consumption at a level similar to that observed during the same month of 2019 (pre-pandemic) but 5% below that observed in 2018. In seasonally adjusted terms, the series marked a fourth consecutive increase, although it should be noted that the seasonal adjustment for the month of March and April is affected by the quarantine that began during that month of 2020,” highlighted the CAC report. .
How is consumption expected to evolve in the coming months?
The expectations according to the index evolution for the next few months they are not positive. The CAC analysts pointed out that the purchasing power of households presents negative trends eight months ago. “In this frame, households are unlikely to be able to sustain consumption in a context of so much fragility”they warned.
According to the report, there is a slowdown in year-on-year growth from the second half of 2022 and also the first negative signs in some categories.
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What items is most affected by this slowdown?
The heading of clothing and footwear showed in April a estimated drop of 10% year-on-year. From the CAC they emphasize that this phenomenon occurs due to the relative increase in prices in the sector. On the other hand, the area of transport and vehicles showed a estimated growth of 10% year-on-year in April, a significant percentage, but in any case less than the one registered a month ago due to the large number of patents, both for cars and motorcycles, which explain a good part of the growth.
recreation and culture It is one of the few segments that shows important growth rates with an estimated advance of 16% YoY in April. This item is the only one, along with living placewhich marks a level of consumption above that of the pre-pandemic.
The heading of housing, rents and utilities showed a 5% drop compared to the same month last year, the first contraction of the post-pandemic.
Source: Ambito
