The economy is weakening, and there is restraint on the labor market. Unemployed people currently have poor prospects for a job. On the other hand, there is good news from the refugees from Ukraine.
Hardly any spring revival on the labor market: the number of unemployed in Germany fell slightly in May, but not as sharply as usual in this month. Because of the weakening economy, it is currently more difficult for the unemployed to find a job. At the same time, given the shortage of skilled workers, companies are increasingly retaining their employees. The experts are therefore confident about the progress made in integrating the Ukrainian refugees. But there are obstacles.
In May, the number of unemployed fell by 42,000 to 2.544 million compared to April. A year ago, however, it was 284,000 fewer. The rate fell by 0.2 points to 5.5 percent in May.
“The growth in employment continues, but is losing momentum,” said Daniel Terzenbach, head of the Federal Employment Agency, in Nuremberg on Wednesday. “The number of reported jobs continues to fall from a relatively high level. The spring revival will therefore remain subdued this year.”
Growth only due to foreign employees
A look at the seasonally adjusted figures also shows this: As a result, the number of unemployed increased by 9,000 in May. Even without the refugees from Ukraine, unemployment would have risen compared to the same month last year, albeit less sharply. For the statistics, the Federal Agency took into account figures that were available up to May 11th.
Nevertheless, the labor market remains a guarantee of stability in economically uncertain times, said Federal Labor Minister Hubertus Heil (SPD). According to projections by the Federal Employment Agency, the number of employees subject to social security contributions rose by 319,000 to 34.65 million in March compared to the previous year – and according to the minister is still at a record level. “Now it is important to offer those who currently have no work a fair chance on the job market – also in terms of securing skilled workers.” The citizen’s income, which will apply from July, will therefore introduce new instruments for qualification.
However, the increase in employment is based solely on foreign workers, Terzenbach noted. On the other hand, the number of German employees subject to social security contributions fell by 60,000 during the period – due to the demographic effect. This is particularly evident in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia, where employment is falling, explained Terzenbach.
One hope therefore lies in the refugees from Ukraine. The Federal Agency is currently looking after 500,000 people who are able to work and their children with basic security. But you have to be realistic, emphasized Terzenbach. “Not everyone will be able to be quickly integrated into the labor market in the short term.” One challenge is the lack of childcare options, since two thirds of the refugees are women, often with small children. But poor knowledge of German and traumatizing experiences also prevented people from taking up work immediately.
Integration of Ukrainians is progressing well
Nevertheless, according to the Federal Agency, 80,000 people from Ukraine took up employment subject to social security contributions between the beginning of the war and March 2023. There are also 25,000 mini-jobbers. Studies have shown that around half of the refugees are normally integrated into the labor market after five years, and among people from the Ukraine it is already more than 20 percent, said Terzenbach. “It’s a good development.”
A major issue is the recognition of professional and academic qualifications, which usually takes a long time, said Terzenbach. In regulated professions such as care and education, legal recognition is necessary so that people can work. You have to organize that quickly, demanded Terzenbach. “That is the task of the federal states.” One possibility is to focus on several larger recognition bodies so that knowledge is pooled.
Economic short-time work continues to be a support for the labor market: from May 1st to 24th, companies announced this for 45,000 employees. Experience has shown that the number of people who actually go on short-time work is lower. Up-to-date data on how many people took advantage of short-time work benefits is available up to March: 133,000 people were employed that month, after 140,000 in February.
Press releases from the Federal Employment Agency KMK on recognition in the professional field
Source: Stern
