Experts expect the largest absolute increase of all time. In order to be able to use the electricity, however, a lot has to happen beforehand.
In view of the global energy crisis, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects the global expansion of renewable electricity capacities to increase by a third this year.
Increasing political momentum, higher fossil fuel prices and concerns about energy security are driving increased deployment of photovoltaic and wind power, the IEA said in a report presented in Paris today. Compared to the time before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the forecast for the expansion of renewable energies has been revised upwards by 40 percent.
The largest absolute increase in renewable electricity generation of all time is expected in 2023. The growth will continue next year, when the total global renewable energy capacity increases to 4,500 gigawatts (GW), equivalent to the total electricity generation of China and the United States combined.
Still a lot to do
“Solar and wind power are at the forefront of the rapid expansion of the new global energy economy,” said IEA Director Fatih Birol. “The global energy crisis has shown that renewable energy is critical to making energy supplies not just cleaner, but safer and more affordable – and governments are responding with efforts to accelerate their deployment.” However, the power grids would have to be modernized and expanded to ensure that the enormous potential of solar and wind energy can be fully exploited.
According to the IEA report, renewable energies are at the forefront in overcoming the energy crisis in Europe. In the US and India, too, new policy measures will contribute to a significant increase over the next two years. China, meanwhile, is solidifying its leading position and will account for nearly 55 percent of global renewable energy capacity expansion in both 2023 and 2024.
The expansion of solar systems will account for two-thirds of the increase in renewable power generation capacity this year, according to the IEA analysis, and will continue to grow until 2024. Higher electricity prices fueled faster growth of rooftop solar panels, which enabled consumers to reduce their electricity bills. At the same time, the production capacity for solar elements is expected to double by 2024.
After years of sluggish expansion of wind turbines, the IEA expects growth of 70 percent for 2023. The rapid growth is mainly due to the completion of projects in China previously slowed down by the corona pandemic and projects in the USA and Europe delayed by supply chain problems.
Whether growth will continue in 2024 will depend on governments’ ability to push approvals. In contrast to photovoltaics, the supply chains for wind turbines are not growing fast enough to keep up with the increasing demand in the medium term.
Source: Stern
