The delegation faced the trip to Buenos Aires satisfied by the bridges built. Even, says Massa’s entourage, he rejoices for not having been inconvenienced by the fact that the Chinese State demands demands in the fiscal accounts or some consideration that weakens economic activity or, worse still, social humor. Nor did reservations appear about the geopolitical dispute. On the contrary, a member of the first line of the trip argued that “China is betting on financing the industry to advance technological development, while US financing is betting on the arms leg and the conditional debt.”
The logic of the officials that Massa has visited, they raise from the delegation, is the following: “If developing countries suffer the colonizing attack from the United States, articulated by weapons, the dollar and multilateral organizations, then China wants a path of development.” On the Chinese side, Massa was received by Wang Lingjun, a member of the General Administration of Customs, Yi Gang, Governor of the People’s Bank of China, Wang Wentao, Minister of Commerce, Li Chunlin, Vice President of the National Development and Reform Commission, among other politicians and bankers.
However, there was an official who actually decided to make a separate point on how. With the decorum that characterizes diplomacy, the delegation stated that the special representative of the Chinese government for Latin American Affairs, Qiu Xiaoqi, was especially interested in the regional and local political situation. “It was a deep, spicy, intense conversation. They are direct, you say what you want and they answer you what they want, ”said the massista circle.
The behind the scenes of Massa’s negotiations with China
What Massa experienced as a “deep two-hour interrogation” was divided into questions about the macroeconomic situation, the growth of the mineral sector, the transition of the Mexican president Lopez Obrador, the monitoring of the Colombian Petro, and, of course, Argentine elections. In his response, Massa acknowledged the opposition coalition as a political rival, and also mentioned the growth of the right. Like Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, without giving proper names. Perhaps because he did not mention it directly, or because he did not allude to his clear eyes, from within they assure that Qiu Xiaoqi never asked him about Javier Milei and they doubt that the Chinese government really knows him.
Between the lines of the extensive conversation was interpreted by the delegation through a question: “Hey, and these projects, who do I follow them with?” That is to say: for a community of investors that plans to renegotiate with the IMF or the entry of Argentina to the BRICS in 60 years, it is necessary, at a minimum, to “guarantee governance” from now to next year, and at a maximum, to systematize the Front of All, respond homogeneously and generate certainty”. This is how the entourage understands it. The question is whether the coalition could or should adapt to the idea. It is known that massismo understands the strategy through a single candidate. “It could be the dog Pluto or Mickey Mouse, it’s not about the name, it’s the collective gaze,” they say around them. They also say that antagonistic positions will generate more explanations in the results of the elections than triumphs.
Under this scenario, on June 7 there will be news. Front-line officials assured that the Governors will promote through a message the call for a decision table. It could include the single candidate request.
What can happen to the IMF
After that date, which could lead to movements on the board, the technical staff of the Ministry of Economy will travel to Washington to “negotiate the last mile.” It is not confirmed that Massa will travel, it will depend on the state of the situation. If she can, she will follow you on Zoom. Likewise, even if he does not go, he has already left a clear message to his interlocutors: the authorization to intervene in the dollar market is documented, or the renegotiation of the agreement is not signed. From his economic team they assure that the exchange rate gap has an impact on prices, and that this has been verified from February onwards. They already know the business move: “they buy from the official, they highlight the blue, they dollarize cash with liquid”, they repeat like a little verse. When the gap exceeded 130%, Massa contacted Cristina Kirchner, told her of her decision to violate that prohibitive clause of the IMF and that eliminating it will be the next battle. Winning it could imply a drop in prices. In fact, They already estimate that inflation in May would be lower than in April, as a result of the BCRA’s intervention on the dollar, a fact that ended up breaking the current agreement de facto.
The figures of the Ministry of Economy do not want to leave any loose ends, the final stretch requires detail. It is that, if an agreement is not reached, not only Argentina would be affected. The IMF pays special attention to the national case. The country’s default for US$45 billion would generate a 40% devaluation of the agency, not counting the domino effect: if Argentina does not pay, Ukraine and Egypt would not pay either due to setting a precedent. In other words, an abrupt joint devaluation, the worst scenario for the Monetary Fund. In any case, from the entourage they seek to bring peace of mind by clarifying that the negotiations are on the right track and that progress has already been made.
An eventual break in relations with Argentina would mean the perfect excuse to remove Kristalina Georgieva, the head of the IMF, from her post. The organization’s internal dispute is against the United States Treasury, which accuses Georgieva of having delayed the delivery of the disbursement to Ukraine in the middle of the war. In turn, Georgieva stands in her place through the weight of the European authorities. The multilateral entity, characterized by putting pressure on developing countries, today keeps the noose tied around its own neck.
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The week of work resulted in a list of investments for more than USD 3,052 million for power lines in the AMBA, advances in the Belgrano Cargas and Ferrocarril Roca, the water treatment and sewage plants of La Ferrere and El Jagüel, and the Cauchari solar park, located in Jujuy. Regarding the latter, Cecilia Moreau was in charge of letting Governor Gerardo Morales know, to whom she wrote: “despite the fact that you bitched us, we got the money.” “The Governor sent us a kiss,” replied an official while he laughed.
China’s opportunity for Argentina
In addition, the Chinese business community raised eyebrows about the Nestor Kirchner Gas Pipeline and energy development. For example, Power China not only submitted a pre-financing offer for the second tranche for USD 1.9 billion through a concessional loan, but also sent the vice president of the entity to Argentina to present its own liquefaction plant and gas pipeline project. dedicated. Lithium aroused the same enthusiasm, the star mineral responsible for the fact that Chinese mining companies have agreed investments of USD 6 billion, distributed mainly between Jujuy and Salta.
In turn, the agro-export market said “present” agreeing to the opening of markets for grains, fruits, and offal for US$700 million. The investments will be made in the main Chinese banks, such as Bank of China, China Development Bank, China CITIC or Export-Import Bank of China.
In the field of finance, the People’s Bank of China sealed the SWAP agreement for US$19 billion for three more years, including US$10 billion freely available, divided into two tranches. It was the firm, headed by Miguel Pesce, who came looking for Massa. Official sources finally clarified that the condition of maintaining the instrument does not involve complying with the agreement with the IMF, but rather the development of the agreed infrastructure works. In addition, progress was made in the mechanism for enabling the yuan as a payment currency to finance investments. With the payment enabled for imports, the commercial and financial cycle between the two countries would thus be systematized. The centrality of the announcement is disputed between enriching the bilateral relationship and having financing that the lack of dollars makes it difficult to obtain.
The conclusion of the tour was shared by the Minister of Economy on Saturday, in front of forty Chinese businessmen: “Difficulty cycles are tied to the formation of external assets and the financing mechanisms for public spending. Now, we have an opportunity as a country.”
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Argentina seeks to be the second world exporter of lithium by 2030. Make China your main trading partner. Also that a greater percentage of the 280 million Chinese who travel the world for tourism, choose the country as a destination. In fact, the visa process will be shortened from 90 to 15 days. In addition, it seeks to position itself as an agro-industrial exporter and plans to be self-sufficient in energy for more than 100 years.
For now, all these goals were put on the table on Friday night, when Massa cut off a planned video call with Washington, rolled up his shirt sleeves, and decided to have a barbecue at the Embassy for his inner circle. He wanted to remind Vaca Narvaja of good Argentine food. Of course: despite everything, they assure that in two hours there was no talk of politics. “We are 19,250 kilometers from Argentina, and next week we will have time”, the diners scoffed.
Source: Ambito
