A little is further than thinking of particularly cold winters at 30 degrees. The gas storage operators do it anyway and warn that even full storage facilities could empty quickly when it gets really cold.
The storage operators still do not rule out a gas shortage in the coming spring of 2024, even if the natural gas storage facilities are completely full at the beginning of winter. This is the result of updated models presented by the Initiative Energies Storage (Ines) industry association in Berlin on Friday. Accordingly, in the scenario of a cold winter like 2010, a consumption level in January, February and March 2024, which is characterized by the current savings, could no longer be fully covered. In this scenario, the reservoirs would be completely emptied in January. “We must not weigh ourselves in with a false sense of security,” explained Ines Managing Director Sebastian Bleschke, according to a statement.
According to the European storage association GIE, German storage facilities were 76 percent full on Thursday morning, and the trend is rising. The Ines storage association assumes that they will be 100 percent full on September 1st and that this level will be maintained until the beginning of November. The statutory filling level requirement of 95 percent by November 1st would thus be met. According to Ines, a moderate to low liquefied natural gas (LNG) import volume in Europe over the summer is sufficient to completely fill the gas storage facilities in Germany.
With a normal temperature profile as in the European weather year 2016, the association expects a fill level of 38 percent on February 1, 2024. With a warm winter like 2020, the model assumes a fill level of almost 65 percent for February 1. For comparison: In the past, mild winter of 2022/23, the fill level on February 1, 2023 was almost 79 percent.
Ines: The level of imports is completely sufficient
“Against the background of the current differences between the summer and winter prices for gas, it can be assumed at the moment that filling will continue in the coming months,” said Bleschke. The current level of imports is completely sufficient for this.
According to the Federal Network Agency, in the first six days of June, an average of 260 gigawatt hours of natural gas per day were pumped into the German transmission network via the new German LNG terminals. For comparison: During the same period, an average of 1132 gigawatt hours of natural gas per day came from Norway via pipeline. One gigawatt hour corresponds to the annual consumption of around 50 households with a consumption of 20,000 kilowatt hours per year.
The association has 15 members. According to their own statements, they represent over 90 percent of German storage capacities and around 25 percent of gas storage capacities in the EU.
Source: Stern
