On the one hand, exports to Brazil registered a year-on-year growth of 50.7% to total about US $ 1,218 million, the highest amount since September 2014, driven by sales of vehicles, wheat and corn.
In parallel, imports climbed 37.6% annually to reach US $ 1.126 billion, the highest record since August 2018. Among the main divisions, purchases of iron and steel laminates stood out.
In sum, the commercial exchange with the country chaired by Jair Bolsonaro showed a flow of US $ 2,344 million, the highest in more than three years.
A report from the consulting firm bbeb He highlighted Argentina’s restrictions on car imports and Brazil’s difficulties in exporting due to the lack of supply of semiconductor chips, favored the favorable balance for our country. In the second instance, they highlighted the crisis for hydroelectric generation in Brazil due to the drought, which favored Argentine exports.
The accumulated commercial exchange for so far in 2021 amounts to $ 19,229 million, exceeding by 11.4% the result of the same period of 2019, which reflects the recovery of trade with respect to the blow it had suffered from the Covid-19 pandemic.
The balance for the first 10 months of the year shows a deficit of US $ 510 million for Argentina, higher than the same period last year from a 45.4% increase in exports and a 46.3% rise in imports.
“Historically, it has been seen that recoveries in trade are accompanied by a greater red in the foreign exchange balance for Argentina, given that the trade balance with Brazil has been in deficit since 2004 (except in 2019) as a result of the wide industrial asymmetries between the two This fact is relevant considering that we expect the domestic economy to grow faster than the Brazilian in 2021 (+ 7.9% vs + 4.9% annually) and 2022 (+ 2% vs + 1.2%) ” , they delved from Abeceb.
Looking ahead, the consulting firm foresees that in the short term the exchange between both nations will continue to increase hand in hand with the exit from the pandemic but warns of some uncertainty for 2022.
From the side of Brazil, due to the successive cuts in the economic expansion projections and the erosion in consumer and industrial confidence, within the framework of the application of a more contractionary monetary policy in the face of the advance of inflation above the target set by the central bank and typical pre-election uncertainty.
On the Argentine side, Abeceb shows some doubts about a hypothetical tightening of the restrictions to buy official dollars, both for retailers and importers, in the context of growing expectations of devaluation.
“Additionally, normalization in the difficulties faced by global supply chains will take time to come, so it is expected that a certain shortage of key inputs (such as chips) will continue, preventing a smooth operation of manufacturing activity, and with it, Finally, although the outlook improved in September and October, the historical downspout of the Paraná River will continue to be a factor to monitor, since the prospect of drought for the coming months suggests that it could continue to hinder the normal trade flow between the two countries, “the report added.
Source From: Ambito
David William is a talented author who has made a name for himself in the world of writing. He is a professional author who writes on a wide range of topics, from general interest to opinion news. David is currently working as a writer at 24 hours worlds where he brings his unique perspective and in-depth research to his articles, making them both informative and engaging.
