The activity accumulated in March a growth of 1.5% in the first quarter of the year compared to the same period of the previous year, according to the latest EMAE. And, although the consultants Private companies forecast a setback in the economy for this year, There are a number of factors -such as industry and consumption- that can help cushion the fall.
Beyond the impact of drought and lack of foreign exchange, a private study highlighted that private consumption and “productive inertia” can mitigate the brake. In this sense, while the consultants surveyed in the REM forecast a 3% drop in GDP for this year, these factors may help to reduce the retraction.
This was analyzed in a report by the consulting firm Sarandí, in which it was considered “precipitate” suppose a collapse greater than 4% in the level of activity for this year, as projected by some private firms. “Not only the numbers for the first five months of the year clash against this possibility, but also the same ‘productive inertia’ that drags the economy”, they explained.
“It happens that, despite all the obstacles and restrictions to access reserves to bring inputs, most companies find some way out of the maze. Whether using its own dollars, buying in the financial market, obtaining financing or waiting for bureaucratic times, the private sector has very strong incentives not to stop production given the vigor of the demand”, they pointed out from the consultancy.
It is that, as he remarkedgoods and services “as a ‘refuge’ against inflationary erosion make it possible to sustain levels of private consumption.” “In addition, any legal entity that can access imports does so, anticipating a possible increase in prices within the framework of the future normalization of the exchange market,” they detailed.
Among the data reviewed by the study, the growth accumulated by industrial production in the first four months of the year (4%) stood out: “Manufacturing activity in April reached maximum levels in 65 months, with an acceptable level of utilization of installed capacity (67.5% in March)”. “In the same vein, the construction sector accompanies with three of the last four months up (+3.4% monthly in April)”, they remarked from the Sarandí consultancy, although they detailed that, on the contrary, the primary sector It is experiencing the consequences of the drought.
Activity: projections for 2023
According to the latest Survey of Market Expectations (REM) released by the Central Bank, the consultants estimate a drop in GDP of 3% year-on-year for this year. Thus, the drop forecast was reduced with respect to the previous REM by 0.1 pp
“In fact, the survey average revised expectations upwards, from a 3% drop to 2.7% by 2023. Given the latest publication of the EMAE and the fact that the results are better than expected, an improvement in GDP expectations could be seen,” they explained from the ACM consultancy.
For their part, as analyzed by the firm Orlando Ferreres, for the coming months it is expected that the fall in activities related to agriculture will continue, “with the rest of the coldest sectors”. “Looking at the second half of the year the uncertainty is very high and the future of the activity will depend on the evolution of the macroeconomy and the definitions that are given in political matters”, they detailed.
For its part, from LCG they projected for this year a drop in activity “close to 3.7% average in the year, with a marked deterioration towards the last quarter.”
Source: Ambito
