While waiting for the official data of inflation May, which this Wednesday will be broadcast by the INDECdifferent private surveys realized that the price of food presented a certain deceleration during the first days of June. Something that, in fact, was also perceived last month with respect to the April figures.
Thus, although the variation in the item food (the one with the highest incidence in the CPI) continues to be high, it is estimated that, if this trend continues, during June it could again be below the general level.
By case, according to the survey of retail prices carried out by the consultant EcoGoin the second week of the month there was a variation of 0.7% in food prices compared to the previous week (had been 1.8%).
“With this data and considering a weekly variation projection of 1.6% for the next two weeks of the month, inflation for food consumed at home in June would climb to 7.3% per month. If we also consider the evolution of food consumed outside the home (7.4%), food inflation would reach 7.3%”, they detailed from the firm. This would mean a slowdown in the indicator prepared by the consultant, which for May estimated a 9% rise in food and beverages.
On the other hand, according to the survey carried out by GCLin the first week of June Food and Beverages rose 0.6%, decelerating 2.9 pp compared to the previous week. “Average monthly inflation also slowed down, standing at 7.3% (5.7% measured end to end in the last 4 weeks)”, detailed from the consultant.
“This week the percentage of products with increased prices continued to decline and stood at 16% of the total basket and is 8 pp below the average for the first months of the year, for the second consecutive week,” they added.
In the first week, they stressed, the item “ready meals” had a rise well above the average (3.5%), “which explained the first half of weekly inflation.” “At the other extreme, the fall in Meats (-0.1), Beverages (-0.1%) and Oils (-0.2%), with a greater relative weight, took pressure off”, they added, while explaining that meat “still reflects a delay of 8.3% compared to the rest of the food measured since last September”.
Inflation for May: what data is expected
Waiting for the INDEC spread the official data, The government estimated days ago that in May there could be a certain slowdown in inflation compared to April (it was 8.4% per month). However, the consultants provide an even higher figure. By case, according to REM of the BCRA, analysts projected a monthly inflation of 9%.
Meanwhile, the CPI GBA that measures the consultancy ecolatin went up 8.9% in May, accelerating for the fifth consecutive month (in April, the firm’s indicator had climbed 7.2%). “The acceleration mainly responded to the drag left by the increases in the last week of April, essentially motivated by the jump in free dollars, which were not fully captured in the April index, together with increases in public service rates,” They estimated from the consultant, and detailed that the food and beverages item rose 7.2%.
Meanwhile, the CPI for orlando ferreres for the GBA went up 8.8% monthlywhile that of the Foundation Freedom and Progress was 9.1%.
For his part, since GCL analyzed: “On the one hand, the LCG Food Price Survey marked an average monthly inflation of 8%, which would contribute 2.2 pp to the CPI. On the other, a series of increases in regulated prices (electricity, gas, transport, fuel, prepaid and others) would contribute another 2 pp to the index. Based on this floor and, considering that the high inertia that prices have been showing could also have been affected by the abrupt rise of the parallel dollar towards the end of April (which leaves a statistical carryover to May), we expect inflation for the month to still be above 8% monthly (marking 115% year-on-year)”.
Source: Ambito
