Pending new inflation data, it is expected that the Central Bank (BCRA) Analyze this Thursday what will happen to the interest rate that up to now is at 97% per year. Although the market anticipates that it is very likely that this will not happen, if inflation is less than 8%, the current rate would be sufficient. But also, this return can be added to another maneuver that can allow a profit of 200%. What does it consist of?
With the last rise in interest rates set by the Central Bank (BCRA) -from 91% to 97%- deposits of up to 30 million pesos made by human persons, the new guaranteed nominal annual rate floor (TNA) will be of 97% -previously it was 91%- for 30-day deposits, which represents a monthly return of 8.08% and 140.51% annual effective, in the event that they are reinvested every 30 days every month principal and interest earned.
Taking these data into account, there is an alternative to what the analyst Salvador Di Stéfano called “calesita or staggered fixed term”. It consists of making three different UVA fixed-term placements for the same amount, but at different periods of time.
The logic of this mechanism is that after waiting for the first 90 mandatory days of reserve requirements, renewals begin to be made every 30 days for a fixed UVA term.
“The rise in prices of the economy is the pillar of this investment and it is updated if more inflation is measured, so a fixed term provides an income similar to the behavior of prices in a whole year, which we estimate will be 200% in 12 months”.
This expert even maintains that with the fixed-term UVA “merry-go-round” (or “staged”) it is possible to “earn more than with the dollar bill”.
Fixed term: what are the steps to obtain a return of 200%
The calesita or staggered fixed term is based on deposit three precancellable UVA placements at the same time and for the same amount, but at different maturity periods in each case, with a difference of one month from each other. That is to say, one at 90, another at 120 and the third at 150 days.
This way, as soon as the first of these deposits is due, it is renewed with the interest earned the minimum time possible by the financial system, which is 90 days. Therefore, the same thing is done every time there is a maturity and thus begins to “build” the merry-go-round that leads to the conclusion of a fixed-term placement every month, which is reinvested together with the income obtained.
“By waiting the initial 3 months required for all cases, the expiration wheel or merry-go-round is being assembled, since a fixed UVA term will be available to renew every 30 days,” Di Stefano clarifies. One detail that should be taken into account is that this analyst’s suggestion is that of make a fixed term UVA precancellable version, which is the option that makes it possible to redeem the capital invested from 30 days after the constitution onwards.
The problem with this option, which allows you to get money before 90 days, is that in case of “triggering” that benefit, it is that in return an income similar to inflation will not be charged rather, a fixed prepayment rate will be received that applies to deposits with an early payment option in UVA, established by the Central Bank, which is 91.80% annual nominal (TNA).
Therefore, in that case of activating the “early departure” not only will an income be received much lower than the estimates that reach up to 200% inflation, but it will also be less than the profit granted by a traditional fixed term of 97% annual, whose minimum reserve period is 30 days.
Fixed term: how to make a fixed term calesita
In practice, to make a “staggered” UVA fixed term, it is necessary to establish three placements for the same amount but at different maturities. So, if you have $150,000 available to invest, you have to distribute it as follows:
-A first UVA fixed-term deposit precancellable at 90 days for $50,000.
-A second placement, for another $50,000, for a period of 120 days.
-Make a third UVA fixed term, also for $50,000, but at 150 days.
Through this mechanism, in the first 89 days there will be no maturities, but after the 90th day the first fixed term will expire, and it is suggested to renew it with the interest earned for another 90 days.
Thus, one month after the first expiration, on the 120th day of having made the three initial placements, the second UVA fixed term will expire, which is also suggested to be renewed together with the interest earned for 90 days, in order to gradually increase the rent.
The same will happen on the 150th day of having made the three deposits, since that is where the third UVA fixed term made initially will end, and which is now proposed to be reset to 90 days, which is the minimum time allowed.
In conclusion, a fixed term will be renewed every 3 months where the profits accumulate generated with the initial capital plus the interest obtained up to that moment.
Source: Ambito
