This is one of the variables that worries the Government the most because mastering it is one of the central commitments that the current economic team assumed and it has not achieved it. In addition, it is a key topic for social humor these days due to the deterioration that it generates in wages.
The official expectation (or desire) is that the figure remains around 7.5%, in line with the data from CPI of the City of Buenos Aires, which was a positive sign, which encouraged the possibility of a slowdown in the data. In the City, they expect a higher figure, but they do not rule out that it may be in line with the official desire. Because?
In the economic team they talk about inflation that starts with seven and they hope that this can generate a positive impact on the markets, after the hard blow in April, when the data was 8.4%. A positive precedent is that the CPI of CABA gave 7.5% and, although it is never the same, they bet that this number can be repeated, or that it hits close, even if it is.
A few weeks ago, a report from Guido Lorenzo’s Labor Capital and Growth (LCG) consulting firm had been released, which effectively revealed a slowdown in food prices towards the end of May. That was another encouraging fact.
The worrying data
However, last week, the last Survey of Market Expectations (REM), that spread this Friday the Central Bank (BCRA) and heAnalysts estimated inflation for the whole year higher than 148%, well above the 126.4% that was calculated a month ago, and the 9% for May, above the 8.4% registered in April.
The existence of these two opposing gazes is very common at this time in the City. And it is that, as indicated to Ámbito by the economist and director of Eco Go Sebastián Menescaldi, “this month, it is a little more uncertain to know what the BCRA is going to do”.
And it is that there is a strong disparity between the official expectation and that of the consultants. The explanation found by Camilo Tiscornia, director of CyT Asesores Económicos, is that “this difference may have to do with the time when certain increases were registered.”
Inflation: what analysts expect
And he adds that it may be that, “since the private ones fell short in April, now the INDEC matches the result.” Thus, he explains that this month the private sector is between 8.5% and 9%, while the INDEC would be at 7.5% and, in April, this organization gave 8.4% against between 7.5% and 8. %.
In this way, Menescaldi points out that “the numbers may be compatible, taking into account that the result of accumulated inflation for the first five months of the year, with an INDEC figure of around 7.5%, would be in line with the accumulated what we value.” Thus, he agrees with Tiscornia that “it could be a catch up” for INDEC in line with what the private parties calculated.
consumption and prices
And, on the other hand, it indicates that this drop recorded by the agency may be due to the fact that, in the last two months, there has been a sharp drop in consumption levels. “I think that this may have affected the prices of products outside supermarkets (supermarkets and stores),” he points out. In this way, he believes that the drop in consumption may have contributed to a fall in prices and may be helping to curb inflationary inertia.
In the same sense, Martín Kalos, director of Epyca Consultores, points out the expectation of a lower index “has to do with the fact that in the first weeks of the month food was calmer”, but warns that in recent weeks they have risen more.
The mystery will be resolved this Wednesday at 4:00 p.m., when the INDEC finally gives the official price result for May. Although, for the director of the consulting firm Epyca Consultores, Martin Kalos, “it is not a fact that changes the panorama of the high installed inertia that we are seeing”.
What’s coming for June in prices
He points out that the problem is that there is no forecast that this could go down in the future. “The revealing thing would be that in June it dropped by around 6%, but I don’t think that will happen and it doesn’t change the picture much,” says Kalos.
Meanwhile, analysts are already measuring the June data. In the Analytica consultancy, which Ricardo Delgado directs, they expect it to be 8.3% in the sixth month of the year. For his part, Tiscornia points out that “an important moderation is seen linked to food and public services as well.” We will have to see what happens first with May and then, see what the polls indicate in June, a month in which the Christmas bonus is collected, which encourages consumption and that is a variable that tends to affect inflation.
Source: Ambito
