The harvest would reach 16.2 million tons of which 9.5 million tons could be sold abroad, representing revenues of more than US$2.3 billion.
There is good news for the economy in the second half of the year. Wheat sowing is advancing steadily and projections indicate that around 16.2 million tons would be harvested in the current cycle, which would mark a 40% growth compared to the previous year and would result in exports of more than US$2 .300 million, that is, an additional US$1,000 million to what was achieved in the last cycle.
“The rainfall in the second half of May saved the sowing of the new wheat campaign, and what initially seemed to be an abrupt drop in area between campaigns, is now projected to be a drop of close to 5%. Thus, with a planting projection of 5.6 million hectares and an expected recovery in yields, the production estimate would be located at 16.2 million tons. Meanwhile, exports could reach 9.5 million tons in the 2023/24 campaign, 120% above the previous campaign. At today’s international values, these 9.5 million tons in exports could represent US$2.375 million dollars, a more than important recovery of the complex’s contribution to our country’s trade balance. If fulfilled, we could be talking about almost an additional $1,000 million in exports between campaigns, although still $2,300 million below what was left by 2021/22”, they detail from the Rosario Stock Exchange.
Meanwhile, the Rosario entity clarifies: “These are, of course, projections; The effective development of foreign trade will depend on many things, such as the competitiveness of Argentine grain in international markets, foreign trade policies, the needs of domestic consumption, among others. The poor prospects for the production of Australia this season, our main competitor in the southern hemisphere, could allow our country to gain participation in countries usually served by the oceanic giant, such as the countries of Southeast Asia, so it is not ruled out that These numbers can be improved. Demand for milling is initially projected at 6 million tons, a figure that can grow if the good dynamics that the milling sector has been presenting this season continues.”
Another key fact to take into account is that in productive terms, despite the fact that the 16.2 million tons of harvest would represent a 40% recovery in the country’s wheat production, after the fateful 2022/23 harvest, it would mark even so, the second lowest wheat production in Argentina in the last 8 years. In other words, removing last season, this would be the lowest wheat production for Argentina since the 2015/16 harvest. This is mainly due to the fact that the area planted in the country would be the smallest since the 2017/18 campaign, since the projection of yields, with certain doubts about the technological package that will be applied to the crops in a more than private campaign, is ranks below other records achieved by the country.
In any case, the possible greater inflow of foreign currency, which will begin to settle as of next December, is good news for the local economy eager for fresh dollars. In addition, it would articulate as a necessary bridge for the next soybean harvest, but for that there is still a long way to go.
Currently, the income of dollars from the field is virtually paralyzed because after the severe drought the soybean harvest fell by around 50% and although the producers still have around 10 million tons in their possession, sales are not materializing in the Internal market.
Source: Ambito
