The primary deficit would have reached 0.7% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first five months of the year, as a consequence of the fall in the collection of export withholdings and therefore away from the agreed goals with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the first semester. The estimate corresponds to the consultant LCG.
“During May tax revenues continued to fall in real terms affected by lower collection associated with foreign trade despite the fact that in the month the collection from withholdings from the validity of the Soybean dollar had a positive impact, ”said the consultant in its latest report.
The work indicates that “Spending continued to accompany this dynamic, trying to reflect a certain commitment to the convergence agreed with the IMF.” Last month the Government would have reduced spending by around 10% per year measured in real terms. “Notwithstanding this, the primary deficit would exceed $250,000 million, which implies accumulating a red of 0.7% of GDP in 5 months of the year”, indicates LCG..
This Thursday the Palacio de Hacienda will reveal the official data on the National Public Sector, cash basis, which is the methodology used by the credit agency. Between January and April the red of public accounts reached $1.02 trillion, while the goal for the first semester is $1.185 trillion.
According to the Palacio de Hacienda, so far the accumulated is 0.62% of GDP. In the first four months of the year, the Government achieved in the capital markets financing for $548,000 millionwhile he had to resort to aid from the Central Bank for another $670,000 million.
In this sense, the director of thehe consultant PxQ, Emmanuel Alvarez Agis, stated in a recent chat with investors that the increase in the deficit above what was expected this year is due to the drought. estimated that the impact will be 1% of GDP, due to a 0.7% drop in withholdings on exports and, in turn, another 0.3% drop in import tariffs as a product of the least amount of dollars to import. “The goal with the IMF is compromised,” he said, recalling that the 2023 goal is 1.9% of GDP.
The economist thinks that the Government “is lowering the level of strong public spending”. According to his estimates, it fell 4% in real terms in February, but collection fell 8%; it contracted 17% in March but income did so by 21% while in April it was 10% and 18%, respectively. “As a consequence the deficit worsens,” he explained.
In this sense, he said that “If we had had the same collection of withholdings as the average for 2021 and 2022, that is, without a drought, we would have had an accumulated fiscal deficit as of April of $517,000 million and the agreed goals could have been met.
Source: Ambito
